'A lot of downside, but not a lot of upside': The balancing act facing Jayson Tatum and the Celtics

INSIDE TD GARDEN'S home locker room, Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum was asked about the frustrations he experienced during his nearly 300-day journey back from a torn Achilles.

"I ain't know how this s--- was going to be," Tatum told reporters Sunday after Boston's loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves. "It's tough. In the moment, you try not to think about it. You just want to be Jayson Tatum and feel like yourself again.

"I'm not Superman, so it's obviously going to take some time."

After missing the first 62 games, Tatum returned March 6 to a standing ovation from the Boston crowd. And at times, including during that season debut against the Dallas Mavericks that featured 15 points and 12 rebounds in 27 minutes, Tatum has shown flashes of the All-NBA game that has made the 28-year-old wing one of the league's top 10 players.

Tatum has scored in double figures in all eight games he has played -- he reached at least 20 points in five of them -- with four double-doubles. But those numbers cover up the understandable growing pains of Boston easing back its superstar in the middle of a playoff push.

The Celtics, whose retooled roster entered this season with the franchise's lowest expectations in a decade, have ripped off a memorable campaign that has them in second place in the Eastern Conference and its betting favorite to reach the Finals. (Wednesday night, Boston hosts the only team in the league with better NBA title odds, the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder.)

Returning to those heights will likely require Tatum to progress to his pre-injury form. And as the franchise navigates the push and pull of a nearly unprecedented situation, Tatum and the Celtics represent perhaps the biggest wild card of the 2026 playoffs.

"The question is, do they have enough time to figure it out?" a Western Conference scout told ESPN. "[Eleven more] regular-season games isn't a lot."

BOSTON'S SEASON WAS projected to be a gap year, as Tatum's injury and offseason departures of Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford and Luke Kornet left the team without much of its 2024 championship core. The Celtics never took that approach, and Tatum's potential return hung over Boston's surprise run to the East's top tier.

Even going back to Tatum's surgery -- performed the morning after the Game 4 loss to the New York Knicks to avoid swelling and speed up his recovery by a month -- there was a belief that Tatum could indeed return at some point during the 2025-26 season.

"[Because of] the seriousness in which you go get surgery," Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla said before Tatum's return game. "The seriousness in which you start attacking the rehab process, not just from a physical, but a mental and emotional standpoint. ...

"I knew he was going to do everything he could."

As Tatum kept passing checkpoints, the focus shifted to how he would look when he made his eventual return. Once he did, the conversation shifted again.

Could Tatum possibly regain his superstar form in time for a deep playoff run?

"I'm just taking it day by day," Tatum said Sunday. "I have probably the worst injury you could have. I came back in 10 months.

"I wanted to be perfect and," Tatum continued, snapping his fingers, "[return to] first-team All-NBA Jayson like that. I didn't rush the rehab process, so I can't rush this."

Tatum's first eight games have featured plenty of peaks and valleys, with two numbers that stand out immediately: a 30.8% usage rate and a heavy reliance on 3-pointers.

"It would be better if he could get off the ball a little bit more," an East assistant coach said. "But I don't expect that will happen."

Tatum's usage, while in line with his past five seasons, doesn't resemble a player easing back into play. "That's too high," another West scout said flatly.

"A big part of this is wanting to come back and be what you were before," an assistant coach whose team has faced Tatum this season said. "It is hard to be like, 'I'm back, but I'm only able to play for X number of minutes.'"

Additionally, Tatum has taken 75 of his 139 shots (53.9%) from behind the arc.

"To me, the [nearly nine] 3s a game tell the story." the assistant coach said. "He's still super smart, and he can shoot it. But he doesn't seem to trust [his leg yet], or he can't go by guys yet, so he's hunting his jumper more than ever."

But simply looking at Tatum's early shooting numbers, including 38.8% overall and 29.3% from 3 in the games he's played, doesn't properly measure his potential impact. While scoring often gets the most attention -- heading into 2025-26, Tatum averaged more than 26 points in five straight seasons -- he has added plenty of value in other areas throughout his career.

Despite a lack of explosiveness, Tatum is averaging a career-high 8.9 rebounds, which has been critical to an undersized Celtics roster after it lost big men in Porzingis, Horford and Kornet last summer. Tatum has always been a strong team and help defender and has averaged 1.1 steals this season.

"I think they're the best team in the East," another assistant coach who has seen the Celtics since Tatum's return said. "I don't think him being back helps now, but I think it will help in the playoffs.

"He just doesn't look like he has confidence in that leg yet. [But] if you let him shoot spot-up jumpers and rhythm looks, he'll be good."

THE CHALLENGE FACING Tatum and the Celtics is balancing the natural desire to rush back into a first-option role and the reality that the best immediate path forward is Tatum slotting into a secondary role behind MVP contender Jaylen Brown.

"[Tatum] looks like most guys who are coming off an Achilles tear: not great. That's why coming back now is so hard. There's a lot of downside, but not a lot of upside," an East scout said, adding that they believe the Celtics are giving Tatum as much latitude as he needs to get back up to speed.

As an example of how Boston could optimize Tatum going forward, the first West scout pointed to the transformation that's been happening to the Los Angeles Lakers offense in recent weeks, as LeBron James has taken on a new role as secondary option behind Luka Doncic.

"To their credit, and to his credit, [LeBron is] playing the right way," the scout said. "He's a basketball savant, and he's figuring out how to fill in the gaps and they are unstoppable right now. You have the growing pains with working Tatum back in, and you just have to give it time."

Tatum has largely taken Jordan Walsh's minutes in Boston's rotation. The energetic third-year forward had been averaging 17.2 minutes but has not played in Boston's past five games. Walsh's 5.3 points per game this season fall well short of what even a rusty Tatum can provide -- much less a full-strength version.

Naturally, it's going to take time for Tatum to return to his peak self -- something that every source asked about his return believes will eventually happen. Whether that's during Boston's upcoming playoff run is arguably one of the biggest questions facing the conference.

Last year's conference champion, the Indiana Pacers, are in the middle of a true gap year after Tyrese Haliburton suffered an Achilles tear in Game 7 of the NBA Finals. The Detroit Pistons have had a remarkable season atop the conference, but questions swirl about their ability to score in the playoffs. They haven't won a playoff series since 2008, and their superstar, Cade Cunningham, is sidelined with a collapsed lung.

The Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers, meanwhile, entered the season as the co-favorites to win the conference but have had plenty of false starts that have cast doubt on either's ability to break through. And the other teams in the East that were once believed to have a chance to truly make noise -- such as the Orlando Magic, Atlanta Hawks and Philadelphia 76ers -- have fallen short.

The Celtics, though, have always believed they can win it all. That was Mazzulla's message during training camp, and it has remained the team's belief now that Tatum has returned. Not only is Boston trying to get back to the NBA Finals, but they're also trying to guide their star through an extremely difficult process of acclimating to high-level basketball on the fly -- and with the playoffs looming.

"The thing it reminds me of, in a way, is the [No. ] 45 Jordan year," the East assistant coach said, referring to when Michael Jordan came back from playing baseball in March of the 1994-95 season. "He's working his way back into shape midseason, getting up to speed, and we'll see if he can."