Don't be surprised if ... Giannis is a one-man show this season

Each week in the NBA is its own story -- full of surprises, both positive and negative -- and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true ... don't be surprised!

Don't be surprised if ... Nikola Jokic is not the top fantasy scorer this season

We can go several directions with this one, but ultimately, C Victor Wembanyama, with his incredible dominance at both ends of the floor (scoring, blocking shots) is the best player in the league. Even after only one week, it is his league now.

Still, while Jokic investors should not be particularly concerned about fantasy's top player for the past six seasons, because he is not struggling, he seems awfully shy about shooting in several games so far. Jokic is averaging another triple double, but he has been deferring to teammates more than typical. That's OK. Jokic must shoot better from range, but perhaps we should expect more like 25 PPG than 29.6 PPG. If Jokic averages 25 PPG, 13 RPG and 10 APG, that is still a top 5 fantasy option, but perhaps not in the top 3.

Fantasy managers should watch several non-Jokic Nuggets to see which trends appear. PG Jamal Murray and PF Aaron Gordon won't average 55 PPG for long, especially since Gordon's numbers are skewed by an aberrant 50-point, 8-rebound (85 fantasy points) game, but SF/PF Cameron Johnson must become a larger factor soon. He is a better volume 3-point option than Gordon. It is why they traded for Johnson. In fact, look for Johnson to outpace Gordon in fantasy value for the season. Since Johnson is rostered in fewer than 50% of ESPN leagues, that's an opportunity for managers.

Don't be surprised if ... Giannis Antetokounmpo really is a one-man show this season

Antetokounmpo is off to a blistering start, his only blemish being the rotten free throw shooting, but everything else looks awesome. He is getting assists, but his teammates -- and the notable one in the middle -- are not doing so much on a consistent basis. One night it is SG Gary Trent Jr., another it is PG Cole Anthony. It was reasonable to expect more from their big free agent signing C Myles Turner this season, and to be fair, more is coming. Will it be enough for fantasy managers? Turner never felt like doing much rebounding during his Indiana Pacers days, and he isn't doing much so far with the Bucks. He will shoot better, but perhaps far less than expected. Essentially, Turner is blocking shots. Turner wasn't supposed to be Neemias Queta or Isaiah Stewart in fantasy.

Things will improve some, but I wouldn't be trading for Turner as if he is close to a top 50 fantasy option, especially in points formats. Finishing among the non-Wemby leaders in blocks makes Turner more valuable in roto/categories formats. The Bucks have one fellow scoring nearly a third of their points, and then everyone else is looking to shoot 3-pointers. This can work. The Boston Celtics want everyone shooting 3-pointers. Trent, Anthony, SG AJ Green and SG Ryan Rollins are not attempting many 2-pointers because that is the plan. SG/PG Kevin Porter Jr. (ankle), when healthy, may not, too. Turner has a key role defensively, but he doesn't look like a great offensive fit in Milwaukee, so far.

Don't be surprised if ... Jrue Holiday is a top 50 fantasy option, yet again

Speaking of the Bucks, few expected their former point guard Holiday, 35, to produce excellent numbers resembling his three-year run in Milwaukee. He used to be a fantasy building block. Holiday averaged 18.5 PPG, 6.8 APG and 1.5 SPG over three Bucks seasons, while offering top-notch shooting. He did not offer numbers relevant to fantasy managers during his two-year run for the Celtics, so potential investors looked elsewhere when they dumped his contract on the Blazers. The Blazers are competing nicely, and on the court, things look positive for this young team, led by an old point guard.

Most assumed the Blazers acquired Holiday only to eventually trade him. Perhaps this occurs near the trade deadline but, for now, Holiday shows the skills of a ... well, a fantasy building block. Don't expect Holiday to suddenly fall apart. Combined with the emergence of SF/PF Deni Avdija and C Donovan Clingan, this is a competitive team. It defends, it scores enough, it has an on-court leader. I invested in young, raw PG Scoot Henderson (hamstring) last season, and after watching him play for a month, I wish I hadn't. Henderson may make his season debut in a few weeks, but he can't shoot and makes, shall we say, interesting decisions when leading an offense. He's not leading this offense if Holiday is healthy and still here.

No Blazers are (as of this writing) rostered in 90% of ESPN standard leagues, but Avdija and Holiday deserve the attention, and the UConn product Clingan may be a top 10 fantasy center this season. His is an enormous body, obviously, but there may be some offensive upside as well. Clingan is attempting and making more 3-pointers, and he made clear adjustments on his free throw shooting. This is a better player (and fantasy option) than the fellow he shared center duties with last season, Los Angeles Lakers C Deandre Ayton, though you wouldn't know it from ESPN average live drafts or roster percentages.