Pamela MaldonadoMar 4, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
- Pamela Maldonado is a sports betting analyst for ESPN.
Bay Hill is long, demanding, the rough is thick and if your long irons aren't sharp, you're going to feel it by Saturday. The par 3s are no joke -- 200-plus yards -- on a course where a birdie fest is subdued. It's more about controlled tee shots, strong iron play and guys who survive missed greens.
I'm looking for balanced tee-to-green players with solid long iron numbers and enough short game ability/stability to grind out four rounds without imploding.
Here are the players that make sense for Bay Hill.
Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook
(with ties) and subject to change.
Best bets
Nicolai Højgaard: Top 20 (+148)
Full odds:
Top 30 -108
Top 10 +360
Top 5 +830
To win +5600
The version of Højgaard that missed cuts here in 2025 isn't the version we're seeing now. Last season he was consistently bleeding strokes around the green, which is fatal at Bay Hill where missed greens are guaranteed. Over his last seven rounds, he's been neutral or positive, removing his biggest liability.
The ball striking is real, gaining strokes on approach in every event this year, and continuing to produce positive off-the-tee numbers. Controlling shots and long-iron proximity is what separates contenders from survivors.
He's also second in par 3 scoring and fourth on par 3s over 200 yards, which directly correlates to Bay Hill's setup. Add in improved scrambling and a positive Bermuda putting split, and you're looking at a far more complete player; credit I didn't give him last week.
Højgaard is a balanced tee-to-green player with short-game stability, which means his baseline has clearly moved up. If his current form holds, he's live to be near the top of the leaderboard.
Ryo Hisatsune: Top 30 (+156)
Full odds:
Top 20 +255
Top 10 +680
Top 5 +1700
To win +14500
His 2026 profile is quietly strong: gaining strokes off the tee, on approach and around the green in weighted splits. That kind of across the board ball striking plays at Bay Hill, where positional driving and long-iron control matters more than pure distance. He's also Top 20 in both overall par 3 scoring and long par 3s. The weakness is scrambling, which can be exposed in heavy wind or thick rough. However, his GIR rate limits the number of pressure recovery shots he faces. For a top 30 ticket, Hisatsune just needs to avoid a blow up round.
He hasn't played at Bay Hill, but that matters less for a placement market than for a top 10 or better. Bermuda is his best surface, making this a structural play built on sustainable tee to green form rather than a spike in form.
Players to consider for Daily Fantasy
Play daily fantasy golf at DraftKings.
Shane Lowry, $8,600
Lowry is eighth in the field with his irons, 15th with greens in regulations and top 20 in par 3 scoring, all benefits for this course. The red flags are that he's neutral off the tee, struggles around the green and slightly negative on this putting surface. Yet, his iron play creates opportunities. Even if he is negative around the green this week, his GIR reduces exposure to that weakness. The real angle though is historical comfort with back to back top 10s at Bay Hill. His iron-heavy profile fits the long par 3s and positional tee shots. So with Lowry, you're getting a strong approach, proven course performance, high cut equity and top 10 ceiling. He's not a perfect statistical fit but his game translates nonetheless.
Pierceson Coody, $6,700 and Top 20 (+146)
Full odds:
Top 10 +360
Top 5 + 820
To win +5300
Instead of zooming out to his long term resume, I zoomed in on recent form and saw his baseline improvement. This year, he's built one of the strongest tee to green profiles in this range: fourth off the tee, 16th on approach, with a GIR rate that's third in the field. He's top 5 in par 3 scoring, making him a great look but then you see volatility with the putter and that creates hesitation. Neutral overall and slightly negative on Bermuda, so this isn't a putting-driven heater. For a Top 20 cash, he likely needs neutral to slightly positive performance on these greens. The upside is real though as shown by a T14 here and a T2 at Torrey earlier this season.
In fantasy, the value is even more clear. His tee-to-green production gives him cut equity and Top 15 ceiling at a mid-tier price. You're paying for form before the market fully corrects.
DFS player to fade
Scottie Scheffler, $14,200
Best player in the world, but it's about price versus path to first place. He remains elite off the tee, first in the field and his short game has been sharp. The unusual part is that the putter is doing more of the heavy lifting than the irons. His approach numbers are okay but not nearly dominant, typical to what separates him from the field when he wins.
At this salary, you'd need a near lock top-5 finish or legit win equity. Anything less becomes inefficient roster construction. If his irons are just good instead of great, he becomes more "strong contender" than overwhelming favorite.
At $14,2000, that restricts lineup flexibility and forces you to sacrifice depth. This is simply betting against a premium price.
