How to bet the Houston Open: Koepka stands out, but what about Gotterup?

Welcome to Texas, as the PGA heads to Memorial Park for the Texas Children's Houston Open. This is a grip-it-and-rip-it setup where drivers get a green light and fairways barely matter. You can miss and still attack, which shifts the entire focus of the tournament. Off the tee gives players the advantage but it doesn't win it for them.

The real test starts on the second shot; targets are small, greens are tricky and getting the ball close is harder than it looks. Once you miss, it gets even worse. Chipping is demanding, scrambling is unreliable and it's easy to give shots back. Everyone will have chances but not everyone will convert.

That's the lens for this week in the PGA. I'm prioritizing players who can jump off with the driver and can survive and capitalize when things get uncomfortable around the greens. Distance gets you in position but precision and touch decides who soars to the top.

Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook (with ties) and subject to change.

Best bets

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Min Woo Lee: Top 20 (-120)

Lee isn't priced as the favorite by accident. His profile is exactly what this course rewards, and more importantly, it's repeatable.

He's one of the best drivers in the field, second in strokes gained off the tee and second in from tee to green. Memorial Park allows players to swing aggressively without much penalty. Lee can not only take advantage of that but create separation with it. His distance and controlled speed give him easier looks into greens, which raises both his ceiling and his floor.

The difference with Lee compared to other high-upside players is that even when his irons aren't sharp, he can recover. His T12 at Riviera, where he lost six strokes on approach, is a clear example of that safety net. His around-the-green play and scoring ability keep him afloat.

Laying -120 is a fair price considering he has the skill set to win again, along with the consistency to be on the first page of the leaderboard come Sunday.

Brooks Koepka: Top 20 (+120)

The results are starting to catch up because the underlying game has a strong foundation. Koepka is the second best iron player entering this week over the past 20 rounds and third from tee to green, the basis for success for Memorial Park. Since this isn't a course that requires precision off the tee, his lack of accuracy is largely irrelevant. What matters is that he's long enough to take advantage and elite enough with his irons to separate.

You can't fake ballstriking, and Koepka's current form shows that part of his game is clicking, which has helped push him to three straight top-20 finishes. He's also gaining around the green, which raises his floor. There's still volatility, but you're getting a player with proven closing ability, elite tee-to-green metrics and a profile that fits the course.

Plus, Koepka has firsthand knowledge of how Memorial Park is meant to play because he helped shape its competitive setup, giving him a clearer understanding of where to attack and where mistakes get punished. That familiarity can translate into better decision-making under pressure compared to the field.

Keith Mitchell: Top 20 (+165)

This is where price and profile actually align. He is one of the best drivers in the field, top 15 off the tee, with a combination of distance and control that fits this course well. You get rewarded for aggressive driving. Mitchell starts with an advantage. His price stands out because his tee-to-green game is stronger than his results show. He has shown stretches of positive approach play, including a T11 at Torrey Pines, which is one of the closest comp courses before this tournament. When his irons cooperate, he looks like a top-tier player.

The volatility comes from his short game, which can swing from week to week. That's the difference between a top-10 finish and a finish outside the top 30. But for a top-20 wager, Mitchell has enough stability to convert the opportunities his driver creates. A repeatable skill that the market is undervaluing.

Players to consider for Daily Fantasy

Nicolai Højgaard $9,200: This is where upside and price meet. He brings the same aggressive, driver-heavy profile as the higher-priced names but with a slightly more stable to green baseline. His length gives him the chance to take advantage of Memorial Park and if his irons are even average, he can give him scoring chances to climb the leaderboard. He's not a safe play but he gives you a ceiling without overpaying for it. Hojgaard has both win equity and gives you lineup flexibility.

Jake Knapp $9,500: This is priced about right, which makes it hard to love but he has the distance and his T5 at Torrey Pines shows he can handle a longer, driver-heavy test. The issue is that his game still runs hot and cold. He relies on stretches where everything clicks rather than a steady baseline you can trust. He's a viable play if you're chasing upside, just not a clear edge.

DFS player to fade

Chris Gotterup $9,800: Gotterup is priced like a stable top-tier option but his profile doesn't fully support that. His value comes from off the tee dominance and occasional approach spikes, which are fair but he also lacks the consistency.

When those two don't align, his short game isn't strong enough to save rounds, which leads to chaotic scoring. Gotterup either contends or falls off so at this price, you're paying for a ceiling without a reliable floor. That's a problem in most lineup builds. There are cheaper players with similar upside and more balanced tee-to-green profiles, making Gotterup an inefficient use of salary.