Is the Champions League Arsenal's to lose? Ranking the field, Best XI at midway point

One of the primary complaints about the new Champions League format, with no groups and one large, 36-team table, is that it's hard to figure out the stakes from week to week. There's plenty of truth in that concern. But we're four matchdays into the 2025-26 Champions League league phase, having hit the halfway point this week, and we can definitely find that plenty has changed since the competition began a couple of months ago.

Liverpool have stumbled, but if Tuesday's win over Real Madrid is any indication, might be righting the ship. Arsenal's odds of a Premier League-Champions League double improve by the day. Bayern are reminding us all that if you win every match, you're going to win lots of trophies. And as a whole, we've seen far more early focus from the sport's heavyweights than a year ago - we don't have teams like Real Madrid or PSG flirting with missing out on a top-24 finish.

With a partial focus on the goings-on of this week's Matchday 4 action, let's take a look at the biggest things that have (or haven't) changed since this competition began.

Whose stock has risen the most in four matches?

Granted, four matches haven't changed much for some teams. Of the 36 teams in the league phase, 18 have a projected point total, per Opta's power ratings, within two points of what it was in early September. Monaco, for instance, has evidently changed absolutely nothing thus far -- they've gone from 10.1 expected points ... to 10.1 expected points.

However, nine teams have seen their points and odds shift a good amount in a positive direction.

The first thing you probably notice is that most of those teams are big names. Last year's league phase saw teams like PSG and Manchester City have to rally from poor runs of form to still make the knockout rounds, and their draws were much more difficult because of it: Manchester City was seeded just 22nd and ended up losing to Real Madrid in the round of 24 -- sorry, the knockout phase play-offs -- while PSG was seeded 15th and drew Liverpool in the round of 16. Granted, they beat Liverpool and went on to win the tournament, but their draw was still harder than they'd have hoped it would be.

This time around, it seems most of the heavyweights have made it a point to handle their business early. The top 10 teams in the world, per Opta, are all currently 12th or better in the Champions League table. Granted, that includes teams like Chelsea, Barcelona and Liverpool, who have wobbled at times this fall, but it also includes the teams above.

Among that group, Bayern and Arsenal have very much asserted themselves as the two best teams in this field thus far. Bayern have yet to drop points in any match in any competition, and Arsenal have lost only to Liverpool in Premier League play. They've outscored opponents 25-3 in this competition, and that includes Bayern's 2-1 win over defending champion PSG in Paris on Tuesday.

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Bayern's and Arsenal's leagues have also seen the most projected improvement. Bundesliga teams have seen their average expected point total rise by 2.0 points, thanks to both Bayern's and Borussia Dortmund's early work. (The other two Bundesliga teams in the field, Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen, have seen their expected point totals barely change.) Meanwhile, English teams are up by an average of 1.7, which shouldn't be a surprise since three of the five are represented in the table above.

Only two teams from outside Europe's Big Five leagues have seen their stock change in a positive fashion: Galatasaray and FK Qarabag. Galatasaray got walloped 5-1 by Eintracht Frankfurt on Matchday 1, but they've since won three straight to sit ninth overall, while Qarabag are honestly the story of the competition. They've won two of four matches, and their 2-2 draw with Chelsea on Wednesday was incredibly deserved.

Really, Matchday 4 gave us a couple different sets of vibes. On Tuesday, in five matches pitting teams from the Big Five leagues against teams from outside, the Big Five teams took 13 points (four wins and a draw) and outscored their foes 12-2. On Wednesday, we got another five such matches, and the Big Five teams earned just eight points with two lackluster wins (Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 over Benfica, Inter 2-1 over Kairat Almaty), two wild draws (Qarabag 2, Chelsea 2; Club Brugge 3, Barcelona 3) and Villarreal's 1-0 loss to Pafos.

Wednesday was encouraging because surprise results are life-givers in long tournaments, though the overall trend is pretty clear.

Whose stock has fallen the most?

Nine teams have seen their stock rise, but nine have done the opposite. And no one has disappointed more than a pair of former European Cup champions.

Benfica and Ajax are the only remaining teams to have failed to earn a single point thus far. Benfica have been a bit snake-bitten, with three one-goal losses including Wednesday's rather undeserved 1-0 defeat to Bayer Leverkusen. But Ajax have just been awful, getting outscored 14-1 and losing each match by at least two goals. The back half of their schedule lightens up a bit, but that won't matter if their form doesn't improve.

Only three of the above teams are from Big Five leagues, and two -- Villarreal and Athletic Club -- are from Spain. In all, LaLiga has easily had the worst form of any of the Big Five. Real Madrid, Barcelona and Atletico Madrid haven't seen their expected point totals change much, and Athletic and Villarreal are currently 27th and 32nd, respectively, both positioned to fail to reach the round of 24.

Barcelona's title odds, meanwhile, have begun to suffer with their recent run of poor form. Three teams, in fact, have seen their title odds drop by more than 3.0%: Liverpool (down 9.2 percentage points to 11.3%), Barcelona (down 3.6 to 4.3%) and Chelsea (down 3.1 to 4.1%).

The Best XI to date

Goalkeeper: David Raya, Arsenal. For lineups like this, I tend to favor the most well-tested of keepers, going with someone like, say, Bodo/Glimt's Nikita Haikin, who has faced 27 shots on goal -- shots that were worth 10.0 xG according to StatsPerform's post-shot model -- but has allowed only seven goals from said shots. He is therefore +3.0 in terms of goals prevented. He's been awesome.

Raya, on the other hand, has faced only seven shots on goal in four matches, a ridiculously low workload. But he's stopped all of them (goals prevented: +1.1), and, well, when you haven't allowed a single goal, it's hard to pick anyone else.

Backups: Nikita Haikin (Bodo/Glimt), Guglielmo Vicario (Tottenham Hotspur)

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Nicol: Szoboszlai was 'world class' vs. Real Madrid

Steve Nicol analyses Arne Slot's Liverpool performance as he believes they 'outplayed' Real Madrid in their 1-0 win in the Champions League at Anfield.

Right back: Dominik Szoboszlai, Liverpool. Like Arne Slot, I'm sticking Szoboszlai at right back because he has to be in the team somewhere. In four matches, he's played 90 minutes as a right back, 90 as a defensive midfielder, 90 as a central midfielder and 90 as an attacking midfielder.

Backups: Pedro Porro (Tottenham Hotspur), Matheus Silva (FK Qarabag)

Center-backs: Josko Gvardiol, Manchester City; Odin Bjørtuft, Bodo/Glimt. There are two types of central defenders in the Champions League. First, the guys on rich possession teams who are relied upon as much for proper buildup play as anything, and then there are the guys on outmanned squads who are tasked with putting out countless fires. These two each fill one of these roles, but they've produced nearly the same stats in the process, which I enjoy.

Gvardiol has the third-most pass completions (291) and progressive carries (53) in the competition; he assisted one of Erling Haaland's many goals, and he's made 55 defensive interventions to date. Bjortuft, meanwhile, has also made 55 interventions with excellent ball progression -- fifth in pass completions, first in progressive carries.

Backups: Virgil Van Dijk (Liverpool), Micky van de Ven (Tottenham Hotspur), Derrick Luckassen (Pafos)

Left back: Nuno Mendes, PSG. He's simply the best left back in the world, and it might not be particularly close. He proves it in every competition he's in (aside from the Club World Cup final, anyway). Even with the sprained knee he evidently suffered late against Bayern, I'd still pick him over just about anyone else.

Backups: Ousseynou Niang (Union Saint-Gilloise), Raphaël Guerreiro (Bayern Munich)

Defensive midfielder: Joey Veerman, PSV. For defensive midfielder, I tend to look at who's combining great ball progression work with the best ball stopping. Well, Veerman does far more of the former than the latter, but he's first in the competition with 57 progressive passes, he has one assist from eight chances created, and he's at least in the top 50 in ball recoveries (19). That'll do.

Backups: Morten Hjulmand (Sporting CP), Aleksandar Pavlovic (Bayern Munich)

Central midfielder: Vitinha, PSG. He remains a wildly impressive string-puller: He's first in pass attempts (414), fourth in progressive passes (44), seventh in progressive carries (45) and even fourth in ball recoveries (27). He has a goal and an assist, too, though that's not really even his job.

Backups: Phil Foden (Manchester City), Hakan Çalhanoglu (Inter Milan)

Central attacking midfielder: Fermín López, Barcelona. Only Victor Osimhen has more combined Champions League goals and assists than Lopez (three goals, two assists), and Lopez has only played in 269 of a possible 360 minutes. He does absolutely no work in defense, but he's doing a good job in ball progression and a great job of carving out space in the box.

Florian Wirtz leads the competition with 16 chances created, but we're going with the scorer here.

Backups: Florian Wirtz (Liverpool), Hans Vanaken (Club Brugge)

Right winger: Lamine Yamal, Barcelona. I mean, my gracious:

Backups: Michael Olise (Bayern Munich), Carlos Forbs (Club Brugge)

Center forward: Victor Osimhen, Galatasaray. He's played in only three of four matches, but he leads the competition in goals (six), and while three of them have been penalties, his raw shot totals -- 18 shots, 15 on target, 11 worth at least 0.2 xG -- are absurd.

With Osimhen leading the way, Galatasaray are a legitimate threat to make a run to at least the quarterfinals or semifinals.

Backups: Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid), Julián Álvarez (Atletico Madrid)

Left winger: Luis Díaz, Bayern Munich. His speed has allowed Harry Kane to play as part center-forward, damn near part-midfielder this year; Kane's getting more involved throughout the pitch, and Diaz is relentlessly racing into space. He has three goals and 25 progressive carries, and he's a willing presser.

Diaz has been a transformative addition, just as he's seemed like a bit of a transformative departure from Liverpool.

Backups: Marcus Rashford (Barcelona), Jens Petter Hauge (Bodo/Glimt)

Ranking all 36 teams after Matchday 4

(Note: These rankings are based on my personal opinions for where teams stand at the moment: it's not intended to directly reflect the current table.)

1. Arsenal. The way Mikel Arteta has been able to distribute minutes is jarring. Twenty-three guys have played at least 140 minutes, and 12 have played at least 700, but only Declan Rice and Gabriel Magalhães have played in all 16 matches in all competitions, and only Gabriel and David Raya have topped 1,200 minutes. And yet they've won 14 of 16 matches and have allowed three goals all season.

I only included one of their players on the Best XI above because so many guys have done so well that almost no one has really stood out. In Football Manager, this is the point at which you start thinking about starting another save -- your team's too good, and it's going to get boring soon. (I doubt it will get boring for Arsenal fans, however.)

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Did Luis Diaz deserve his red card against PSG after Achraf Hakimi tackle?

Gab Marcotti and Julien Laurens react to Achraf Hakimi's injury after Bayern Munich's Luis Diaz was sent off for a dangerous tackle on the Paris Saint Germain defender.

2. Bayern Munich. Because of Diaz's mid-game red card, Bayern were able to prove themselves in two completely different ways on Tuesday in Paris. In the first half, they simply manhandled the defending European champs, scoring twice and creating almost all of the game's good chances (first half xG: Bayern 1.4, PSG 0.5). In the second half, a man down, they had to suffer and weather a huge PSG storm. But they did so successfully.

Since the Club World Cup loss to PSG, they've played 15 matches and won them all. It feels strange not ranking them No. 1 with such a perfect record, but guess who they visit on Matchday 5? Arsenal!

3. PSG. Between injuries and heavy shuffling from Luis Enrique, we've barely seen full-strength PSG this season, and Ousmane Dembélé having to leave after 25 minutes on Tuesday was a reminder of that. They lack the edge they displayed in this competition last spring, but they're playing better than they were last November at least.

4. Manchester City. Phil Foden's solid rebound season continues, as a pair of outstanding finishes against Borussia Dortmund -- his two goals came on shots worth just 0.13 combined xG -- turned what should have been a decent win (xG: City 1.9, BVB 0.9) into a resounding 4-1 thumping. After a bumpy start that included two early Premier League losses and a glitchy draw at Monaco in the Champions League, they've won six of their last seven and eight of 10.

It's hard to make the case that they're in the same league as Arsenal or Bayern in particular right now, but it's early. They could get there.

5. Liverpool. The Reds gave Real Madrid plenty of the ball, but created almost all of the good looks in open play and dominated on set pieces. All in all, it was a wonderfully well-rounded performance loaded with good creative work from Szoboszlai and Wirtz.

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Were the Liverpool fans right to boo Trent Alexander-Arnold?

Gab Marcotti and Julien Laurens debate if the Liverpool fans had the "right" to boo Trent Alexander-Arnold on his first return to Anfield.

6. Inter Milan. I called Inter's win over Kairat lackluster above, and that's probably unfair -- they attempted 23 shots (worth 2.0 xG) to Kairat's seven (0.2) -- but the bar's pretty high for the top eight. They did avoid dropping points, however, and they're one of three teams with a perfect 12 of 12 points.

7. Real Madrid. With only two losses in 15 matches and star turns for players like Arda Güler and Álvaro Carreras, things are going undeniably well for Xabi Alonso at Real Madrid. But their two losses -- 5-2 at Atletico in September and a not-as-close-as-the-score 1-0 defeat at Liverpool on Tuesday -- were startlingly poor. They could never match Liverpool's effort and control, and only Thibaut Courtois kept it from being much worse than 1-0.

8. Newcastle United. After last weekend's no-show loss at West Ham United, Newcastle responded well, thumping a stylistically similar Athletic Club by playing better defense and attacking with more directness at times.

Eddie Howe & Co. are laboring at 13th in the Premier League, but they're sixth in the Champions League table.

9. Tottenham Hotspur. On a day in which Bayern and Liverpool scored huge wins over fellow bluebloods, Micky van de Ven somehow stole the show.

Spurs: still very confusing and inconsistent. And also seventh in the Champions League table and sixth in the Premier League.

10. Barcelona. Matchday 4 didn't give us quite as many goals as the last round, but it did give us a glorious -- for neutrals, anyway -- 3-3 draw between Barca and Club Brugge. The defensive breakdowns are becoming far more common for Hansi Flick in his second season at Barca (just as they did in his second year at Bayern), and they've given up 14 goals in their last seven matches in all competitions.

The season began beautifully, with eight matches unbeaten, but it's growing rocky, and not even some glorious nonsense from Lamine Yamal could salvage all three points in Bruges. In fact, they needed a late disallowed goal from Brugge just to grab one point.

11. Chelsea. For whatever they lack in terms of elite talent, FK Qarabag field a team of grown men and steely veterans; Chelsea, meanwhile, started six players 21 and under. They got genuinely outplayed for much of their 2-2 draw in Azerbaijan. An extremely up-and-down season continues.

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Did Chelsea 'get away' with their 2-2 draw vs. Qarabag?

Gab Marcotti analyses Chelsea's struggles as they managed to get a 2-2 draw in the Champions League vs. Qarabag.

12. Galatasaray. It took them until the 59th minute to score on a dire Ajax team, but Victor Osimhen followed a lovely goal up with a pair of penalties for a hat trick in a 3-0 win and midway through the league phase, only four teams have more points than Galatasaray.

13. Atletico Madrid. They're only allowed to look great or terrible, never in between, but they were awesome against Union Saint-Gilloise. When Julian Alvarez is dialed in, as he was on Tuesday, Atleti probably are too.

Julián Álvarez with a brilliant touch and finish for Atlético's opener 😮‍💨 pic.twitter.com/DZdaXROauI

14. Borussia Dortmund. If you beat Borussia Dortmund, you're probably pretty good. In the last six months, only Real Madrid (Club World Cup), Bayern (Bundesliga) and Manchester City (Champions League) have done it. They were definitely second-best in Manchester, and they've slipped to 14th in the crowded table, but their next two matches are at home against Villarreal and Bodo/Glimt, so they'll have a chance to move back into the top eight.

15. Atalanta. Charles De Ketelaere had a penalty saved, and Ademola Lookman had a goal disallowed by a tight offside (then had a cranky exchange with coach Ivan Juric after he was subbed off), but after a strange sequence in which it appeared they may have committed a handball in their own box, a perfect breakaway and a perfect finish from Lazar Samardzic gave Atalanta three tough road points against a good Marseille.

Like plenty of other teams in the middle here, they've been all over the map in 2025-26 (and a huge run of draws is dragging them down in Serie A), but they're comfortably positioned to advance, at least.

16. Sporting CP. Sporting got an early goal from Maxi Araujo against Juventus and then closed up shop, attempting only two shots after the 14th minute and eventually settling for a draw. Considering how much Juve lacks in confidence at the moment -- and the fact that a win would have parked Sporting in the top seven in the table -- that's a pretty disappointing effort.

17. Monaco. Their win over Bodo/Glimt was a full three-act play, and they were lucky to survive the second act with the lead.

This one offsets their Matchday 1 dud against Club Brugge. They're in good shape now.

18. Bayer Leverkusen. It's better to be unimpressive and win than to impress in a loss, I guess. Patrik Schick's entertaining goal gave Leverkusen three points and kept them in the top 24, but this team's wobbling at the moment.

19. Marseille. Injuries are piling up, and they had to feel pretty aggrieved by the way Wednesday's loss to Atalanta ended. They're proving their quality in Ligue 1 play, but they're 25th in the Champions League with home games against Newcastle and Liverpool remaining.

20. Juventus. Considering Luciano Spalletti has been Juve manager for less than a week, getting a draw against a hot Sporting team wasn't the worst result in the world. Their last four Champions League matches don't feature anyone currently higher than 18th in the table, so they could end up in decent shape. Actually looking the part would help, too.

21. Eintracht Frankfurt. Balance is hard. After a dreadful run of defensive form -- 27 goals allowed in eight matches -- Dino Toppmoller and Eintracht have tightened things of late and in the process, their attack has vanished. They've allowed only two goals in their last three matches in all competitions, but they've scored only two as well. Tuesday's match at Napoli provided a much-needed point, but they managed only seven shots worth 0.36 xG in the 0-0 draw.

22. Napoli. Napoli attempted most of the match's higher-xG shots, but nothing came of it. Antonio Conte has had a reputation at times for being outstanding in domestic play but shaky in the Champions League, and beating Inter 3-1 in a big Serie A match while taking one combined point against PSV and Eintracht probably isn't the best way to change that.

23. FK Qarabag. The champs of Azerbaijan continued their incredible run with a draw vs. Chelsea. They're 15th in the table, ahead of three Italian teams and three Spanish teams, among others, and one more win would all but assure that they advance.

24. Club Brugge. The 3-3 draw with Barca was another good result to pair with their thumping of Monaco on Matchday 1. They have only one top team remaining on the slate, so they should be able to scrounge up enough points to advance. Which is good news for us because they're entertaining as hell.

25. Bodo/Glimt. A tough loss on Tuesday against Monaco. Monaco's Folarin Balogun lashed one in from a tight angle, and both Jostein Gundersen and Kasper Hogh missed high-quality chances to tie. Beating Juventus in three weeks will be absolutely vital for any hopes of advancement.

26. PSV Eindhoven. Hey there, Ricardo Pepi.

Pepi saved the day (and a point) at Olympiacos, but after a solid performance against Bayer Leverkusen and a great performance against Napoli, this was still a letdown.

27. Villarreal. They're still winless at the halfway point after a loss to Pafos, and they have to visit Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen moving forward. They might need to win at least one of the two to advance.

28. Athletic Bilbao. It just isn't coming together for Athletic this season. They're 11th in LaLiga, and they're 27th in the Champions League, with only their win over FK Qarabag keeping their hopes afloat. In a year in which they needed a little bit of injury luck to help with depth, they've gotten the opposite -- neither of the Williams brothers (Nico or Inaki) have topped 850 minutes yet this season.

29. Benfica. If either of the zero-point teams (Benfica and Ajax) are to rally, it will definitely be Benfica, as three of their four losses were by one goal and they were the better team for much of Wednesday's loss to Leverkusen. But starting with Matchday 5's visit to Ajax, of all teams, the wins need to start flowing.

30. Olympiacos. Their Tuesday match against PSV was nearly a must-win and they played like it, creating most of the match's good opportunities and going ahead early thanks to Gelson Martins. But allowing an equalizer in stoppage time was devastating. They'll need to win away against Kairat and Ajax to have any hope of advancing.

31. Union Saint-Gilloise. A really fun team to watch. Ousseynou Niang and Anan Khalailli are a dynamite pair of wingbacks, and they never lack for attacking talent. But the defense will probably prove a little too overwhelmed to allow them to advance.

32. Pafos. Few leagues in the world punch above their weight class like the Cypriot First Division, and its 2025-26 Champions League representative backed that up on Wednesday with their 1-0 win over Villarreal. Defender Derrick Luckassen scored the lone goal on a corner and made 21 defensive interventions, David Luiz -- yes, that David Luiz -- made 14 more interventions, and Cyprus' current second-place team beat Spain's current third-place team.

For the first time EVER in the #UCL, Pafos lead 💥 pic.twitter.com/un1Te7QeDG

33. Copenhagen. A fun and engaging team ... that has allowed 12 goals in four matches.

34. Slavia Prague. They took their medicine in 3-0 losses to Inter and Arsenal, but draws in their other two matches and upcoming games against Athletic Bilbao (home) and Pafos (away) still give them hope.

35. Ajax. Zero points! Ajax!

36. Kairat Almaty.

Captain Ofri Arad with a header that stuns the San Siro for the equalizer 🎯 pic.twitter.com/kGQdBW0UZC

When we complain about the (obvious) downsides of the Champions League and European soccer as a whole -- competitive imbalance, too many matches, etc. -- we risk losing sight of when something awesome happens. Like fans of Kairat Almaty getting to celebrate their captain scoring a goal at the legendary San Siro.