Mar 29, 2026, 08:00 AM ET
Half of the Final Four is set! On Saturday, Illinois and Arizona punched their tickets to Indianapolis. Now it's time to decide the final two spots.
Tennessee takes on top-seeded Michigan to start, before a battle of two teams with 11 championships between them in UConn and Duke.
ESPN college basketball reporters Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf make their predictions for both, plus break down the keys for each team.
(6) Tennessee vs. (1) Michigan
2:15 p.m. ET, CBS
Borzello's prediction: Michigan, 80-68
Medcalf's prediction: Michigan, 85-69
How Tennessee can advance to the Final Four: To reach the national semifinals for the first time in program history, the Vols will have to execute a perfect game plan. The X's and O's of this game will matter, but they can't beat Michigan unless Nate Ament and Ja'Kobi Gillespie combine to have a collective performance worthy of making the "One Shining Moment" highlight reel.
Felix Okpara, who has 10 blocks over the past three games, will have to hold his own against the best frontcourt in America, too. He has to avoid foul trouble to be available down the stretch. The Vols will also have to dictate this matchup by making it a battle in the paint -- the only place they can win because they're the No. 1 offensive rebounding team in the country. Still, it seems likely they will need an extraordinary effort to survive Michigan.
How Michigan can advance to the Final Four: An Alabama team ranked third nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency took 31 shots in the second half of its loss to Michigan, and 23 of them were 3-point attempts. The Wolverines not only protect the paint -- opposing teams make just 48.9% of their shots in the post against them, per Synergy Sports -- but they also limit the type of shots opponents can take.
Michigan's offense has been virtually unstoppable this season. Its jumbo lineup is a problem only three teams have solved (Duke, Purdue, Wisconsin). If the Wolverines can limit second-chance opportunities for a Tennessee team that ranks first nationally in offensive rebounding rate and force the Vols into shots outside the paint, Michigan could be on its way to the Final Four. -- Medcalf
(2) UConn vs. (1) Duke
5:05 p.m. ET, TBS/truTV
Borzello's prediction: UConn, 71-70
Medcalf's prediction: Duke, 76-64
How UConn can advance to the Final Four: The Huskies can reach their third national semifinal in four seasons by outplaying Duke in the paint. That starts with Tarris Reed Jr. avoiding foul trouble. Cameron Boozer is 53rd in the country in fouls drawn per 40 minutes -- a couple of quick fouls against Reed could be the difference in this game.
Boozer's flaw has been turnovers; he had four in Duke's two losses this season (Texas Tech and North Carolina). The Huskies need to force and capitalize on turnovers. And they do have the guard depth and size to harass a less-than-100% Caleb Foster and Isaiah Evans on the perimeter. They have to force Duke into tough shots then avoid scoring droughts like the one that led them to squander a 25-6 lead against Michigan State. That can be costly against the Blue Devils.
How Duke can advance to the Final Four: It's clear the Blue Devils aren't 100%. Patrick Ngongba II has played just 29 total minutes in two NCAA tournament games since returning from a right foot fracture that cost him five games. And though Foster scored 11 key points in the second half of their Sweet 16 win, he didn't look like the standout guard we've seen throughout the season. Still, the Blue Devils can advance with the same punishing approach in the paint that has worked for them this postseason.
Since the start of the ACC tournament, Duke has made just 30% of its 3-point attempts. It has also made 57% of its shots inside the arc and grabbed 45% of its missed shots, a top-five mark over that stretch. Even though the Blue Devils have been cold from the perimeter, they continue to win by following Cameron Boozer's lead and owning the paint. They will have to solve Tarris Reed Jr., though. The Huskies' 6-foot-11 center has been a force on both ends of the floor lately, posting double-doubles in two of his three NCAA tournament games so far. -- Medcalf
