Predicting matchups for the CFP and every bowl game after Week 11's thrillers

The Big Ten provided the biggest thrills in Week 11, with Indiana and Oregon both narrowly fending off upsets in dramatic fashion.

But Texas Tech delivered the biggest win of the weekend in terms of College Football Playoff implications, handing BYU its first loss of the season and securing its standing as the team to beat in the Big 12.

As with last season's inaugural 12-team CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.

From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year's Six bowls, with the national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Miami's Hard Rock Stadium.

All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.

We're here for all of it.

ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, and we'll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.

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Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season

College Football Playoff

First-round games (at campus sites)

Friday, Dec. 19
8 p.m., ABC, ESPN

Saturday, Dec. 20
Noon, ABC, ESPN
3:30 p.m., TNT
7:30 p.m., TNT

Bonagura: No. 12 North Texas at No. 5 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Georgia

Bonagura: No. 11 Georgia Tech at No. 6 Texas Tech
Schlabach: No. 11 Pittsburgh at No. 6 Ole Miss

Bonagura: No. 10 BYU at No. 7 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 10 BYU at No. 7 Texas Tech

Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Ole Miss
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oregon

First-round breakdown

Bonagura: The most meaningful result of the weekend was Texas Tech's convincing win against BYU that reestablished the Red Raiders as the favorite in the Big 12 and highlighted the Cougars' offensive limitations. If BYU wins out -- facing TCU, Cincinnati and UCF -- to finish 11-1 and loses again to Texas Tech in the conference title game, it would put the Cougars in an interesting position for at-large consideration, potentially pitting them against a fifth SEC team for the final playoff spot.

When the committee debuted its rankings, Memphis was the highest-ranked Group of 5 team, but promptly lost to Tulane, which dropped the Tigers to sixth place in the American Conference (there are five one-loss teams). I have North Texas in the playoff spot again this week, but there really isn't an obvious favorite.

The Sun Belt's James Madison (8-1) has won seven straight and could benefit from the American chaos, while San Diego State's chances took a huge hit late Saturday night in Hawai'i, where the Aztecs lost 38-6.

Schlabach: I'll be honest: I didn't know what to do with the ACC or the Group of 5 this week after Virginia and Louisville both fell, and Memphis lost to Tulane in the American Conference.

The ACC is an absolute mess with five teams -- Georgia Tech, Virginia, Pittsburgh, SMU and Duke -- currently having only one loss in conference play. I went with the red-hot Panthers for now, but they've got the most difficult road left with a nonconference home game against Notre Dame on Saturday, followed by ACC games at Georgia Tech and home against Miami. Pitt has won five games in a row and is scoring a ton of points, but I'm not sure it can survive that grueling stretch.

I'd loved what Georgia Tech was doing this season, although its 48-36 loss at NC State two weeks ago exposed some serious problems on defense. The Yellow Jackets play at Boston College on Saturday, then host Pittsburgh and play rival Georgia at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

Duke, even at 5-4 overall, might have the best path if it can knock off Virginia at home Saturday. The Blue Devils suffered their third nonconference loss this week, falling to UConn 37-34 on the road. After hosting the Cavaliers, they'll play at North Carolina and against Wake Forest at home.

I went with Tulane as my fifth conference champion, although I seriously considered South Florida, North Texas and James Madison as well.

CFP quarterfinals

Wednesday, Dec. 31

CFP quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Oregon vs. No. 2 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama

Thursday, Jan. 1

CFP quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama
Schlabach: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Indiana

CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 8 Ole Miss vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Ohio State

CFP quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
Schlabach: No. 7 Texas Tech vs. No. 2 Texas A&M

Quarterfinals breakdown

Bonagura: Oregon and Indiana both turned in iconic last-minute drives to win Saturday, keeping both on track. The win was particularly important for Oregon, which doesn't have the same margin of error as the Hoosiers. At 8-1, the Ducks should be safely in the playoff with two wins in their final three games with Minnesota, USC and Washington left to play. Indiana is ranked No. 2 by the committee, but the most likely scenario -- with what's left to come -- is that the Big Ten champion will get the No. 1 seed and the SEC champion will be seeded second.

It goes against the spirit of the rankings, but I think there is a way to take conference affiliation into account come playoff time. Purely from an entertainment standpoint, I don't like that these hypothetical quarterfinals arrange rematches with Alabama-Georgia and Indiana-Oregon. It comes with the territory to a certain degree, but it would be much more interesting if conference matchups were avoided to the extent it wouldn't impact the integrity of the format.

Schlabach: I dinged Indiana one spot in my seedings after it needed a miracle touchdown pass in the closing seconds to beat struggling Penn State 27-24 on the road Saturday. A win is a win, especially in November, but the Nittany Lions have lost six in a row.

I moved Texas A&M up one spot after it picked up another big road victory, winning 38-17 at Missouri. The Aggies won at Notre Dame and LSU earlier this season, and they might have to win once more at rival Texas on Nov. 28 to stay in the hunt for a first-round bye.

Georgia and Alabama would be an entertaining rematch in the Cotton Bowl, and I'm sure Rose Bowl officials would love to see the Fighting Irish and Buckeyes playing in Pasadena on New Year's Day. There would also be plenty of Lone Star State bragging rights on the line if the Aggies and Red Raiders met up in the Sugar Bowl.

CFP semifinals, national championship game

Thursday, Jan. 8

CFP semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Friday, Jan. 9

CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 3 Indiana vs. No. 2 Texas A&M

Monday, Jan. 19

CFP national championship
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 2 Texas A&M vs. No. 1 Ohio State

National championship breakdown

Bonagura: Texas A&M looked the part against Missouri, Ohio State put Purdue to bed in the first half and Indiana survived, leaving three undefeated teams. But none of them have been so dominant that it would qualify as a major shock if they don't march to the title game with ease. This is exactly why a playoff was needed in college football.

Schlabach: Ohio State continues to cruise, routing Purdue 34-10 on the road Saturday. I considered moving Texas A&M to No. 1 because the Buckeyes don't have much meat on their résumé besides their 14-7 win against Texas in the opener.

Road wins at Washington and Illinois were nice, but the Huskies just lost at struggling Wisconsin, and the Illini have dropped three games. Ohio State still has the best defense in the FBS, and quarterback Julian Sayin is a Heisman Trophy front-runner. The Buckeyes shouldn't be tested in their next two games against UCLA and Rutgers before closing the regular season at Michigan on Nov. 29.

Complete bowl season schedule

Saturday, Dec. 13

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. Delaware State

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Arizona vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Washington vs. San Diego State

Tuesday, Dec. 16

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisiana Tech vs. East Carolina
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Troy

Wednesday, Dec. 17

StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Buffalo vs. Jacksonville State
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Old Dominion

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Coastal Carolina vs. Western Michigan
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Central Michigan

Friday, Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: UConn vs. Troy
Schlabach: North Texas vs. James Madison

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: South Florida vs. Clemson
Schlabach: UConn vs. Utah State

Monday, Dec. 22

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Toledo vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Ohio vs. UNLV

Tuesday, Dec. 23

Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Southern Miss vs. Florida International
Schlabach: Arkansas State vs. Miami (Ohio)

New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Old Dominion
Schlabach: Kennesaw State vs. Southern Miss

Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UTSA vs. Hawai'i
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech

Wednesday, Dec. 24

Sheraton Hawai'i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Boise State vs. California
Schlabach: Hawai'i vs. Memphis

Friday, Dec. 26

GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Rutgers vs. Ohio
Schlabach: Rutgers vs. Western Michigan

Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Baylor vs. Northwestern
Schlabach: TCU vs. Northwestern

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Temple vs. Utah State
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Boise State

Saturday, Dec. 27

Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Duke vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. Navy

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Illinois

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. Army
Schlabach: NC State vs. South Florida

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Miami vs. Houston
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Houston

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Fresno State

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: New Mexico vs. Washington State
Schlabach: New Mexico vs. Akron

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Virginia vs. LSU
Schlabach: Virginia vs. Vanderbilt

Kinder's Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: TCU vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. Oklahoma

Monday, Dec. 29

JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Memphis vs. James Madison
Schlabach: Clemson vs. UTSA

Tuesday, Dec. 30

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Kennesaw State
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Western Kentucky

Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. LSU

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. USC
Schlabach: Cincinnati vs. USC

Wednesday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Texas
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Miami vs. California

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Texas

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Utah

Friday, Jan. 2

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Navy
Schlabach: Arizona vs. Army

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Kentucky

Duke's Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Duke vs. Missouri

Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: SMU vs. Washington
Schlabach: SMU vs. Arizona State