Mar 28, 2026, 07:19 PM ET
The 2026 men's basketball tournament round of eight continues Sunday with two monster matchups.
First, 1-seed Michigan (-7.5, O/U 146.5) takes on 6-seed Tennessee at 2:15 p.m., and the 1-seed Duke (-5.5, O/U 133.5) and 2-seed UConn tangle at 5:05 p.m.
Here are my selections for these games and a pick for the new ESPN Men's Tournament Challenge Eliminator game.
Note: Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook
at time of publication time and subject to change.
Sunday's bets
(2) UConn vs. (1) Duke First half over 62.5
I think there is an overcorrection here in the total that doesn't add up. Duke has played several top-15 teams in adjusted defensive efficiency, and the totals have been way higher than this one. Against Kansas the total was 148.5. Against Florida it was 156.5. Against Michigan State it was 141.5. Against Michigan it was 150.5. Duke faced Virginia twice -- once in the regular season and once in the ACC Tournament -- and the totals were 143.5 and 140.5 respectively. Lastly, against St. John's it was 140.5. We are now at least seven points lower than every single one of those totals against a UConn defense that profiles similarly to all the other opponents. That math isn't mathing for me.
I'll cut the game in half because it's a game script that feels like if it ain't going over early, it ain't going over late. Duke has largely been better in the second halves of this tournament, but Dan Hurley is a master at controlling the game late. UConn's offense isn't at the level of Duke, so I don't really like its ability to come back here and feel like it needs to score early in this game to keep Duke on its heels. We get a low number here that we can take advantage of, even with the short turnaround for both teams.
(6) Tennessee Team Total under 69.5
For Michigan to lose this game, two things must happen. It must shoot less than 45% from the field, and its opponent must shoot better than 45% from the field. That's only happened once this entire season, and it was against Duke in a 68-63 final. If the Volunteers have a shot at winning this game, they stay under. Tennessee does not have the offense to keep up with the Wolverines and frankly, it hasn't faced a defense this good all season. Florida is the closest comparison, and it held the Volunteers to 67 in Gainesville earlier this year.
The Volunteers' previous opponent, Iowa State, profiles well defensively, but since the Cyclones were shooting so poorly from the field, it allowed Tennessee to dictate the tempo. Tennessee's scoring will come from its ability to rebound. The problem for Tennessee there is that Michigan is such an elite shooting team, sixth in effective field goal percentage, second in 2-point shooting and 30th in 3-point shooting, that the opportunities for rebounds might not be there. Which brings it back to my opening statement that Michigan must shoot less than 45% from the field, which has happened only five times this season.
Tennessee's offense just isn't that effective. The only thing it does really well is grab offensive rebounds. Michigan will defensively overwhelm Tennessee, force it into long possessions and bad shots. Even with the Wolverines' pace, they have no problem slowing down because they are so efficient. My biggest concern here is that a Michigan blowout will allow Tennessee late, easy buckets that could push this over. I hope for a tight, low-scoring defensive game here.
Eliminator pick: (1) Duke
I still contend the winner of Arizona and Michigan is going to win the National Championship, and in an eliminator contest, I want them saved. But Duke continues to find a way to squeeze past opponents despite not ever dominating a game in this tournament. It won't always be pretty, but the Blue Devils are effective enough to move on here.
How to play ESPN Eliminator Challenge.
Saturday's bets in review
(1) Arizona vs. (2) Purdue over 152.5
My instincts tell me to play into the regression here against Arizona, which is coming off a 109-point outburst over Arkansas in the Sweet 16. But two things still have me looking to a higher scoring contest here. First, even with regression from 64% shooting in their last game, the Wildcats can still get to 80 points because of their elite shotmaking. Second, the Boilermakers' defense doesn't impress me. It is going to be outsized and overwhelmed on the perimeter. This all leads to Arizona points.
Purdue is no slouch in the shotmaking department either, and it has the most efficient offense in the country. The Boilermakers play at a deathly slow pace (325th in adjusted tempo), and they don't want to get in a pace war with Arizona, so their only hope is to try to hold the ball on offense and limit Arizona possessions. Being so efficient should make up for it. I still think Purdue coach Matt Painter knows that scoring at a higher rate than normal is the way to win this game, since Arizona owns the defensive edge. The way this game stays under is Arizona just simply missing shots at an abnormal rate. The Wildcats did not lose a game shooting 45% or higher from the field this season, while scoring less than 70 points just once. If the Wildcats are missing, Purdue will slow their pace down even more and Arizona's season will likely be coming to an end.
Arizona/Illinois moneyline parlay (-119)
This play is chalkier than I ever would want to back, but I just have a hard time seeing either of these teams losing outright. Iowa seems primed for regression after back-to-back games where it shot better than 50% from the field, and the Illini beat the Hawkeyes handily in Iowa City in a game they never trailed. I think Iowa is overmatched here. As for Arizona, it has been my pick all along to win the national championship. Purdue is a highly competent team, however its defense leaves something to be desired and it is outsized in this matchup and will lose the battle on the boards to a much tougher defensive team in Arizona. It's the Elite 8, so matchups will be tight, but I expect the better team to come out on top in both spots.
Eliminator pick: (3) Illinois
Iowa has been a great story, but the Fighting Illini are a much better team and have played like it. Iowa is coming off that massive upset over Florida, then the win over Nebraska, so the chances of it beating two top-10 adjusted efficiency margin teams in the last three games are slim in my eyes.
