Mar 11, 2026, 10:00 AM ET
After a stunning 8-6 upset loss to Italy in World Baseball Classic pool play, Team USA's knockout stage fate now rests on the result of Wednesday's Italy-Mexico game.
Here are the tiebreaker scenarios that will determine if the star-studded U.S. squad moves on to the quarterfinals or is sent home in an all-time shocker.
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How Team USA can advance in WBC
Team USA moves on if ...
Italy beats Mexico: Italy would win the pool at 4-0 and Team USA would finish second at 3-1 (ahead of Mexico's 2-2 mark).
If Mexico beats Italy and Mexico scores five or more runs in nine innings. All thee teams would finish 3-1, Mexico and Team USA would then advance on tiebreaker.
Team USA is eliminated if ...
Mexico beats Italy and scores four or fewer runs in nine innings. All three teams would finish 3-1, Mexico and Italy would then advance on tiebreaker.
How WBC tiebreaker scenarios work
Given the round-robin format of the WBC opening round, ties are to be expected in pool play. This is how the teams moving on are decided.
Two-team tiebreaker
Tiebreaker goes to the team that won the head-to-head matchup
Three-team tiebreaker
While a two-team tiebreaker scenario is very straightforward, it gets decidedly more complicated when three teams finish with the same record, with the tiebreaker decided in this order:
Lowest quotient of fewest runs allowed by defensive outs recorded in games between teams that are tied
Lowest quotient of fewest earned runs allowed divided by the number of defensive outs recorded in games between the teams that are tied
Highest batting average in games between the teams that are tied
Drawing of lots
Heading into Wednesday's Pool B finale, this is how the three teams vying to move on in stack up in runs allowed per defensive out (and a lower quotient is better).
Team USA: 11 runs allowed, 54 defensive outs. 0.2037 quotient
Mexico: Five runs allowed, 24 defensive outs. 0.2083 quotient
Italy: Six runs allowed, 27 defensive outs. 0.2222 quotient
