64% drop-off - Newcastle's terrible home form in big games has ruined their top-four dreams

Newcastle vs Man Utd 

Newcastle are in desperate need of a win but are unlikely to find it when they welcome Manchester United to St James's Park on Wednesday night. Eddie Howe's side have failed to win a single one of their last five Premier League games and since the turn of the year sit worryingly in fifteenth place in the league based on their form over the last nine games. Happier times of winning the League Cup or qualifying for the Champions League feel like a lifetime ago, as the club continues to tumble down the league table. Something has gone terribly wrong for Howe's side this season and their form in games such as Wednesday's showdown with the Red Devils may go some way to explain it.

Indeed, the coming tie will be Newcastle's final home game against any of the teams currently positioned in the top six and even if Howe's side can pick up all three points it will do little to offset what has been a disastrous record this season. Following defeats to Arsenal , Aston Villa and Liverpool and a draw against Chelsea in front of their own fans, Newcastle have so far managed to pick up just one victory - curiously against none other than Manchester City - against the teams they would have pitted themselves against to challenge for the top four. To no great surprise, their record on the road is even worse, with defeats to Man City, Man Utd and Liverpool, alongside a draw with Villa. Trips to Chelsea and Arsenal are still to come but it seems unlikely that Newcastle will make much use of those fixtures if their current form is anything to go by.

This, undoubtedly, is quite a departure from the club's typical form in such fixtures since Howe took over. As we can see in the table above, Newcastle have averaged a pitiful 0.8 points per game at home to teams in the top six this season, which is a massive 64% drop on their rate last season, where the club picked up 11 points against the best teams in the league in front of their own fans. That impressive return more or less lines up with the previous campaign's performances, where Howe's side picked up 12 points and averaged 2.0 points per game despite actually finishing outside the top six that season. Had Howe's side been as formidable at home against such opponents this season as they had been two seasons ago, they'd be sitting in seventh place, just one point behind Chelsea.

This downturn in form in the big games is undoubtedly due to the club's struggles in the transfer market this season. With the departure of star striker Alexander Isak and the obvious struggles of new signings Nick Woltemade , Anthony Elanga and Yoane Wissa to make up for the Swede's goals, Newcastle have failed to look anywhere near as dangerous on the counter attack as they did last season. According to Opta, Howe's side sit fifth for direct attacks in the Premier League this season but sit tenth for goals scored from such sequences in open play. That, in no small part, is due to the aforementioned trio managing just eight goals between them in the league this season.

As such, Newcastle have had to accept smaller ambitions this season as they contend with the tricky transition of embedding new players and essentially rebuilding their attacking line. But few would have expected Howe's team to drop so dramatically down the league table. And, unless the Geordie club can cause an upset against Man Utd on Wednesday and then at Stamford Bridge on Saturday or the Emirates next month, it seems unlikely that Newcastle will start to look like their old themselves anytime soon.