Breakout rankings: Defensemen predicted for breakout success this season

Breakouts on the blue line don't always announce themselves the way forwards do. Instead of sudden scoring spikes, defenders can rack up value quietly through ice time, power-play deployment and underlying physical stats that translate to fantasy points. Not every blueliner breaking into the fray is going to be anything close to a Cale Makar, but spotting when a young defender is ready to step into an expanded role can give you a real edge in drafts.

Last season, our breakout model leaned on age and experience thresholds, but it's now refined to target players likely to make a true fantasy impact, not just fill in for injuries. Using the same approach as with forwards, interquartile ranges for age and experience at first sustained career FPPG above a historical median help us pinpoint blueliners poised to become difference-makers this season.

• Sample size: Though 281 forwards made up our sample of top 100 scorers across the past 16 seasons, the pool of defensemen was 155 cracking the top 50 at least twice in that span.

• Breakout threshold: Lo and behold, it's an identical median of 1.89 fantasy points per game (FPPG) for both forwards and defense.

• How many made it: Of that pool, 68 of the defensemen managed to establish a breakout point in their career, maintaining a rolling FPPG average of 1.89 for at least half a season.

• Average breakout point: For defense, the average for the moment these players broke out was 24 years, 264 days old and 257 games played -- 172 days older and only three more games of experience than the average for forwards.

• Age window: For defense, the window to capture most breakouts is 22.93 to 26.77 years old. While the top age is close to forwards (26.32), the young edge is nearly a full year older than forwards (21.96).

• Experience window: Most defenders have a tighter games-played window for their breakout of 171 to 380 games, compared to 143 to 402 for forwards.

With the historical context in hand, we can now zero in on the defensemen most likely to have a meaningful impact. Below, we highlight those on the verge of breaking out, those who've technically already hit that milestone, and a few others who could surprise with the right opportunity.

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The breakouts

Bowen Byram, D, Buffalo Sabres (24.2 years old, 1.48 FPPG in 246 games): Last season provides a template for how Byram can carve out fantasy value when paired with a clearly superior defender. Jakob Chychrun, for example, thrived alongside John Carlson on the Capitals by securing power play time. Byram will need to coexist with Rasmus Dahlin if he wants to become a factor.

Kevin Bahl, D, Calgary Flames (25.2 years old, 1.38 FPPG in 221 games): In combination with Rasmus Andersson, no other pair of blueliners earned more fantasy points while on the ice together at 5-on-5 last season. The lion's share of the points went to Andersson, but it shows Bahl has the fantasy chops to earn his keep via hits and blocked shots. It would take only a modest increase in production to push him to roster-worthy levels.

Jamie Drysdale, D, Philadelphia Flyers (23.4 years old, 1.28 FPPG in 217 games): Though other defenders could surprise if given power-play opportunities -- Zeev Buium, Artyom Levshunov, Alexander Nikishin -- Drysdale is better positioned to make a real leap into elite territory. With his talent and experience, he could be the power-play quarterback the Flyers have lacked, as the team scored only 32 power-play goals last season. The argument against him is that he could have broken through last season given the opportunity, but he's another year older and an improving offense should go a long way.

Dylan Samberg, D, Winnipeg Jets (26.6 years old, 1.69 FPPG in 216 games): Playing in only 60 games last season, Samberg still led the Jets in blocked shots and earned 1.7 fantasy points per game. Add another 22 games to his totals and top-four minutes right out of the gate, and we could have a great option for late-round fantasy value.

Rasmus Sandin, D, Washington Capitals (25.5 years old, 1.4 FPPG in 309 games): It's a rare case for the Capitals in which three blueliners have a chance to earn power-play time. Carlson and Chychrun worked so well on the top unit, that both are projected to remain there, leaving Sandin to run the more traditional four-forward second unit. But it's likely he doesn't get enough time to be a fantasy factor and, because there are two players ahead of him on the depth chart, he's actually two injuries away from the prime minutes.

Mikey Anderson, D, Los Angeles Kings (26.3 years old, 1.46 FPPG in 345 games): Like Bahl and Samberg, it's not so much hoped than Anderson will move into the "elite" fantasy blueliners, but more like the "elite" shot blockers and body checkers, picking up enough fantasy points through these stats to become a roster mainstay.

Justin Barron, D, Nashville Predators (23.8 years old, 1.23 FPPG in 156 games): There are some offensive instincts built into Barron's game, so the main reason he gets highlighted here is because he might be the best option if Roman Josi's health issues push into the season. Should the need arise for someone other than Josi to handle power-play duties, Barron is the best internal candidate.

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Technically already broken out

Some players who met all the other criteria already had a season on the books as a top-60 blueliner in fantasy, which technically counts as a breakout. But because they're still in the right age and experience range, they deserve a second look.

K'Andre Miller, D, Carolina Hurricanes (25.6 years old, 1.51 FPPG in 368 games): The Canes have two promising fantasy defensemen, but is there room for both to break out? With Jaccob Slavin logging heavy minutes (but not producing much for fantasy) and Shayne Gostisbehere running the power play, how much opportunity will be left to accumulate points? Can Miller or rookie Alexander Nikishin claim enough to be roster-worthy?

Alexander Romanov, D, New York Islanders (25.7 years old, 2.06 FPPG in 354 games): A hard-hitting, shot-blocking defender that can play big minutes doesn't need to pickup offense to have fantasy value, but Romanov isn't a void in that department either, showing a willingness to take shots and make smart passes. He's not going to be a power-play fixture, but he doesn't need to be.

Alex Vlasic, D, Chicago Blackhawks (24.3 years old, 1.65 FPPG in 179 games): You might call Vlasic a "Plan C" for the Blackhawks, as the departure of Seth Jones left a void for an offensive defender to play big minutes and run the power play. While Vlasic showed he can handle those responsibilities in decent fashion, surely it would be preferable for the rebuilding franchise to see Artyom Levshunov or Sam Rinzel take the ball and run with it, but betting on rookie defenders to break through is a tall order. Vlasic will perform if pressed into the responsibility.

Kaiden Guhle, D, Montreal Canadiens (23.6 years old, 1.89 FPPG in 169 games): Lane Hutson, Noah Dobson and even Mike Matheson might get most of the fantasy love on the Habs blue line, but don't overlook the physical play of Guhle.

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The rest

The rest of this list isn't as clear-cut. These blueliners don't have obvious paths to top-pair or top-unit minutes, but depth charts change quickly. An injury, a trade, or just a coach's trust can suddenly put them in a fantasy-relevant role. Keep them on your radar.

• J.J. Moser, D, Tampa Bay Lightning (25.3 years old, 1.11 FPPG in 259 games)

• Timothy Liljegren, D, San Jose Sharks (26.4 years old, 1.43 FPPG in 264 games)

• Adam Boqvist, D, New York Islanders (25.1 years old, 1.02 FPPG in 244 games)

• Mattias Samuelsson, D, Buffalo Sabres (25.5 years old, 1.3 FPPG in 212 games)

• Elias N. Pettersson, D, Vancouver Canucks (26.2 years old, 0.61 FPPG in 194 games)

• Nils Lundkvist, D, Dallas Stars (25.1 years old, 0.76 FPPG in 183 games)

• Jordan Spence, D, Ottawa Senators (24.5 years old, 1.13 FPPG in 180 games)

• Arber Xhekaj, D, Montreal Canadiens (24.6 years old, 0.91 FPPG in 165 games)

• Jordan Harris, D, Boston Bruins (25.2 years old, 0.83 FPPG in 164 games)

• Michael Kesselring, D, Buffalo Sabres (25.7 years old, 1.15 FPPG in 156 games)

• Egor Zamula, D, Philadelphia Flyers (25.4 years old, 1.1 FPPG in 155 games)

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