How the Warriors get Steph to a Game 6, and more NBA playoff keys

The second round of the NBA playoffs has been full of twists and turns. Road upsets! Late comebacks! Overtime thrillers!

And untimely injuries to the league's brightest stars, a tremendous bummer that doesn't warrant an exclamation point.

On Tuesday, the fifth-seeded Indiana Pacers became the first team to advance to the conference finals. Three more teams will join them in the coming days.

As the playoffs continue with must-win games for the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors on Wednesday night, let's take stock of the most important trends and takeaways from the second round thus far, including which recent champion has the easier climb.

Celtics or Warriors: Who has the better chance to rally from 3-1?

The Celtics and Warriors have a lot in common at this point of the postseason. Both have championship aspirations but are one loss away from elimination, with their leading scorer sidelined due to a leg injury.

But which one has a better chance to become the 14th team in NBA history -- and the first since the 2020 Denver Nuggets -- to overcome a 3-1 deficit to advance?

Boston's title defense, already in danger, just got another major blow as Jayson Tatum underwent surgery to repair a torn Achilles tendon suffered during Monday's loss.

The argument for the Warriors, meanwhile, is that Stephen Curry might return from his strained hamstring during this round. But the Warriors will be hard-pressed to complete that full formula -- win a road Game 5 against the Minnesota Timberwolves without him and sneak into a Game 6, where Curry's potential boost could prove enough in Games 6 and 7. And Curry's return is no guarantee, as hamstring strains tend to linger. And his play style relies on constant movement and sharp cuts, potentially risking additional long-term damage if Curry returns too soon.

Without him, the Warriors simply don't have enough offensive firepower. In the regular season, their offensive rating was just 107.0 with Curry on the bench, per Cleaning the Glass, which ranked in the 11th percentile leaguewide. And despite Jimmy Butler III's presence, they've been even worse in the playoffs, with a ghastly 101.9 offensive rating (1st percentile) without Curry.

The Celtics have more talent beyond Tatum, and they had a robust plus-7.8 net rating without their star this year, versus plus-9.8 with him. That gap has widened in the playoffs because of other costly injuries to Boston's core, making the team more reliant on Tatum's individual brilliance. Sam Hauser hasn't played since hurting his ankle in Game 1, and Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis are playing at less than 100% health.

Those limitations will hamper any comeback hopes, but the Celtics' ceiling without Tatum is still higher than the Warriors' sans Curry. Boston would also play a potential Game 7 at home, while Golden State would have to win on the road.

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'What is happening?': JWill is worried after Jimmy Butler's Game 4

Jay Williams singles out Jimmy Butler after the Warriors forward took only nine shots in Golden State's loss to Minnesota.

The Timberwolves have been dominant for long stretches of this postseason, running figurative circles around the older Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers, while the Knicks have gone to clutch time for six of their seven wins in the playoffs. The Knicks have been outscored in the first, second and third quarters in this playoff run, though they're plus-44 in the fourth quarter and won their only overtime contest. That extreme clutch success might not be sustainable, which could give the Celtics an opening to steal a few wins, even with their best closer sidelined.

Prediction models agree that the Celtics have a slightly greater chance at a comeback. ESPN's Basketball Power Index gives the Celtics a 7% chance to advance to the conference finals, versus 5% for the Warriors.

Zone defenses are back

NBA teams don't often use a zone defense. According to GeniusIQ, the leaguewide breakdown throughout the regular season was 97% man defense. The Miami Heat, at 12%, were the only team to reach double digits in zone usage.

But several teams with backs against the wall have turned to frequent zone wrinkles this spring, and the leaguewide zone percentage is the highest for any postseason on record.

The Nuggets offer the most prominent example. During coach Michael Malone's tenure, Denver never used zone on more than five possessions in any playoff game, per GeniusIQ -- but with David Adelman now at the helm after Malone was surprisingly fired in April, the Nuggets have beaten that number in every game against the Thunder, rising from 10 zone possessions in Game 1 to 13 in Game 2 to 21 in Game 3 to a whopping 55 in Game 4. The latter number is the second most for any playoff team in the tracking era (since 2013-14), behind only the Heat's 58 zone possessions in Game 2 of the 2020 Finals.

That approach has mostly worked. Oklahoma City has scored just 1.08 points per possession against the Nuggets' zone, which helps explain the Thunder's scoring struggles after a regular season in which they ranked third in offensive rating.

Cleveland has also joined the zone party this round. The Cavaliers didn't play a single possession of it in their first-round sweep against the Heat -- because they didn't need to. But in an 0-2 hole against the Pacers, they placed Defensive Player of the Year Evan Mobley at the top of a swarming 3-2 zone, and they reaped the benefits, holding Indiana to 0.70 points per zone possession in a Game 3 victory.

The Milwaukee Bucks, Houston Rockets and Warriors have also employed this strategy for stretches. Overall, zones have a defensive rating of 106 this postseason, versus 111 for man defenses in the half court. Flashes of zone have proved to be an effective change of pace for overmatched defensive units.

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Cavs coach calls Pacers' 1st half 'complete domination'

Cavaliers coach Kenny Atkinson reacts to the Pacers' dominating win in Game 4.

But zones are not infallible. Just last year, zones were worse than man defenses in the playoffs, surrendering 117 points per 100 possessions. This week, the Pacers showed why.

Elite offenses such as Indy's can exploit holes in any zone. When the Cavaliers tried to replicate their Game 3 success in Game 4, the Pacers were ready. They absolutely torched Cleveland's zone, scoring 1.92 points per possession -- essentially the equivalent of an uncontested layup every trip down the floor -- before the Cavaliers abandoned that plan. Nobody and nothing has managed to slow the Pacers' torrid offense yet.

Jonathan Kuminga is making himself a lot of money this round

Kuminga, the No. 7 pick in the 2021 draft, is set to reach restricted free agency this summer. (Golden State will be able to match any offer.) And until last week, it seemed as if he had lost coach Steve Kerr's trust -- and, therefore, a chance at a big payday this summer.

Kuminga didn't play in the Warriors' de facto play-in game against the LA Clippers to end the regular season, nor did he appear in their actual play-in game against the Memphis Grizzlies. In the first round against the Rockets, he sat in four of seven games and made just 30% of his shots when he played.

But then Curry strained his hamstring, and Kerr, desperate for any offensive spark, was forced to call upon Kuminga once more. The 22-year-old forward has made the most of his renewed opportunity, even as his team flounders: Over the past three games, against an elite Minnesota defense, Kuminga is averaging 23.7 points on 60% shooting while generating seven free throw attempts per game.

He has been Golden State's most consistent offensive force in this series, proving he deserves a longer look in a bigger role next season. Whether it's in a Warriors jersey or for a rival suitor looking for upside, a team is going to pay Kuminga to give him that chance.

Ty Jerome is costing himself a lot of money this round

The converse of Kuminga resides in Cleveland, where Jerome enjoyed a breakout season for the East's No. 1 seed. Jerome averaged 12.5 points in 19.9 minutes per game and made 44% of his 3-pointers en route to a third-place finish in Sixth Man of the Year voting. Jerome continued that run with an excellent showing against the Heat in the first round (16.3 points per game, 50% on 3s).

Jerome couldn't have picked a better time for this breakout, because he'll be an unrestricted free agent this summer. Last year, another combo guard sixth man, Malik Monk, signed a four-year, $78 million contract to remain with the Sacramento Kings. Could Jerome have entered that neighborhood on the open market? Perhaps, but that chance seems significantly slimmer after Jerome's letdown against the Pacers.

With Darius Garland injured, Jerome scored 21 points on 20 shots in Game 1, then went 1-for-14 in Game 2 and was the defender who lost track of Tyrese Haliburton on the Pacers' game winner. Jerome got off to another slow start in Game 3, shooting 1-for-8, and at that point coach Kenny Atkinson had seen enough. Jerome played just 13 minutes, by far his lowest total of the postseason, as Sam Merrill passed him on the depth chart. By Game 5, Jerome couldn't get off the bench until the second half.

Already facing financial pressures as a projected second apron team next season, the Cavaliers might now conclude that Jerome isn't worth retaining if he can't even stay on the floor in their most important games. And Jerome's struggles in the playoff pressure cooker might also scare off potential suitors who would otherwise be interested in seeing what he could do with more touches.

OKC's bespoke use of Alex Caruso is paying off

Let's finish with a closer analysis of one of the NBA's best role players. Caruso isn't just an elite defender compared to his peers; it's not an exaggeration to say that he's one of the best defenders of the 21st century.

According to xRAPM, an advanced metric that measures a player's impact based on factors such as individual stats and his teammates, the most valuable defenders in the play-by-play era (since 1996-97) are, in order: Kevin Garnett, Dikembe Mutombo, Caruso, Draymond Green, Rudy Gobert, Tim Duncan and Ben Wallace. Caruso is surrounded by Defensive Player of the Year winners, and he and Tony Allen (18th) are the only guards in the top 25.

The Thunder knew what they were getting when they traded Josh Giddey for Caruso last summer. Caruso won't post the same gaudy counting stats as Giddey -- but the former champion with the Los Angeles Lakers fits much better as a clutch option in the playoffs.

The only problem with Caruso's game is that he has been injury prone throughout his NBA career, thanks to his extreme hustle and physical style. So the Thunder embraced an individualized load-management approach for him this season, as Caruso played his fewest minutes since 2018-19. He took plenty of off days (as a non-All-Star, he's not subject to the league's player participation policy).

Caruso's season high in minutes was 31, in a two-point win over the Clippers in March; that was his only game in the regular season with more than 27 minutes played. For comparison, Caruso played more than 27 minutes in 47 different games as a member of the Chicago Bulls last year.

Coach Mark Daigneault has continued to conserve Caruso in the playoffs. After all, he has only so many jumps and lunges and hustle plays in his body; why waste them in games the Thunder are already guaranteed to win?

In Game 1 against Memphis, Caruso was a plus-30 in 12 minutes in the first half, despite not attempting a shot. The Thunder were winning in a blowout, so Caruso didn't get off the bench after halftime. Similarly, in the Thunder's Game 2 rout of the Nuggets, Caruso played 10 minutes in the first half then sat the rest of the game.

But in close games, Caruso looks fresh, plays more and shines. He caused several clutch turnovers in the Thunder's big comeback win in Memphis in Game 3. He tallied 20 points, 6 assists, 5 steals and 2 blocks in Game 1 against the Nuggets. And he helped stabilize the Thunder on both ends in a must-win Game 4 in Denver.

The Thunder closed that game with a lineup of Caruso, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein -- their starting lineup but with Caruso in Luguentz Dort's place. That particular quintet didn't play a single minute together in the regular season, but it might be the best unit at Daigneault's disposal.

If anything, Caruso deserves an even larger role going forward. According to box plus-minus, entering Tuesday's games, Caruso had been the second-most valuable per-minute player in the playoffs this year, behind only Giannis Antetokounmpo. And the Thunder had a plus-22.7 net rating with him on the floor. (The top three players in net rating in the playoffs are OKC's Cason Wallace, Caruso and Aaron Wiggins, which underscores just how productive its bench has been.)