Inside the Warriors' stalemate with Jonathan Kuminga

AFTER REMAINING IN the negotiation shadows the first six weeks of Jonathan Kuminga's restricted free agency, Golden State Warriors owner Joe Lacob emerged from behind the curtain in mid-August.

General manager Mike Dunleavy sent a weekend request for an in-person Monday morning meeting Aug. 11 in Miami. The 10 a.m. ET timing mattered. Lacob planned to attend the Golden State Valkyries game that night in San Francisco.

But the matter was urgent enough to pull Lacob across the country. Bargaining between Kuminga's side and Dunleavy's front office had hit a wall. The Warriors had shut down sign-and-trades, steadfast all offseason in declining frameworks of Royce O'Neale and second-round compensation from the Phoenix Suns or Malik Monk and a future first-round pick from the Sacramento Kings, sources said. Kuminga had made clear his lack of interest in the two-year, $45 million standing offer the Warriors had put in front of him because of the team option on the second season and waiving the de facto no-trade clause.

So, the four most relevant parties -- Lacob, Dunleavy, Kuminga and Kuminga's agent, Aaron Turner -- convened for what felt like the most significant conversation of a Warriors' offseason stuck in the mud.

They talked numbers and structure and the four years of basketball scars that had led them to this stalemate. But there was an underlying question from the Lacob side that felt most pressing.

"Do you want to be here?"

The $21.7 million salary the Warriors were proposing to give Kuminga next season was more immediate money than he would receive in the theoretical Phoenix and Sacramento offers -- though far less in long-term guarantees. It would make him the fourth highest paid player on a team with three Hall of Famers. Considering the frigid nature of the restricted market, the Warriors, sources said, felt the offer more than fair and Kuminga's reluctance a sign of his desire to escape.

But everything within this four-year, multicharacter tug of war is layered. The team-friendly structure was designed and pitched to Kuminga as a contract more easily moved when eligible in January. In requesting he waive his no-trade clause, it was a signal to Kuminga that he would be signing away control of his age 23 and 24 seasons without a say or seat at the table. They could keep and bury him on the bench or trade him to an undesirable situation. He has fierce belief in his talents and is searching for a path to somewhere he believes will grant him an opportunity to flourish.

So Kuminga turned the question back on Lacob and the Warriors.

"Do you even want me here?"

SEPTEMBER BRINGS AN extra level of urgency for NBA teams without complete rosters. The Warriors, entering the final stages of Stephen Curry's feasible contention window, only have nine of their 15 spots officially filled two weeks prior to training camp.

Kuminga is the domino that triggers the rest of their plans. So, it's no surprise Kuminga's phone lit up on the business front over the past few weeks. His star teammates Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green have reached out, checking on Kuminga, his plans and his mindset. Kuminga's agent, Turner, has delivered the latest proposals from the front office after a week of increased negotiations.

But still no resolution.

The Warriors have strengthened their effort. Late last week, Dunleavy offered Kuminga a three-year, $75.2 million deal with a team option in the third season, sources told ESPN. That's $48.3 million guaranteed in the first two seasons and basically the same per year salary as fellow restricted free agent Josh Giddey, who re-signed with the Chicago Bulls for four years and $100 million. The difference: Half the length and a team-controlled third season and a subliminal understanding that the contract is more trade asset than commitment to a partnership.

Dunleavy and the Warriors are requesting the same structure as their previous proposal on the two-year, $45 million framework -- a team option on the second season and a waiving of the inherent no-trade clause, sources said.

Their unwillingness to budge on the team option in those specific two offers is a major part of the holdup. Kuminga, gripping to the first lever of control he has had in his young career, is resistant to the idea of it, sources said. The only non-team option offer the Warriors have made to Kuminga is three years and $54 million fully guaranteed, sources said, an average of $18 million per season.

Turner and Kuminga have spent much of the summer requesting a player option as part of their preferred deals, sources said, showing a willingness to dip down into the $20 million per year range for it, but believing a team option deal should cost around $30 million per year. The Warriors have also viewed a player option as a nonstarter, sources said.

So, Turner and Kuminga have presented alternatives. One of the latest counters, sources said, came in the past week: One year on a negotiable number, presented as a souped-up version of the qualifying offer, getting Kuminga a financial bump (up from $8 million) and unrestricted free agency next summer while wiping away the inherent no-trade clause and allowing the Warriors to use him as an expiring contract at the deadline. It would serve as a bridge deal that gives both sides the ability to examine another year together, but also a much more trade-friendly salary number as opposed to the qualifying offer, which has an Oct. 1 deadline. It is similar to a concept the Brooklyn Nets proposed to Cam Thomas.

Dunleavy declined the concept, sources said, and it is Lacob who is apparently against the balloon one-year offer, leaving the Warriors too vulnerable to losing Kuminga next summer for nothing.

So, the stalemate of the summer drags further into September.

LACOB HAS BEEN a central figure in Kuminga's NBA career since the beginning. Bob Myers was team president and Dunleavy assistant general manager when they drafted Kuminga in 2021. They gave the collective green light, but Lacob was a driving force in the selection when others, including a few on the coaching staff, voiced a Franz Wagner preference, sources said.

Lacob has remained a staunch Kuminga supporter and vocal believer in his long-term future. He voiced an unwillingness to include Kuminga in a proposed trade from Chicago for Alex Caruso a couple of seasons back, sources said, and was still glowing about Kuminga's performance in May after he rose from out of Steve Kerr's first-round rotation to the team's leading scorer in the second-round loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves.

The two sat courtside together at a Valkyries game soon after the series and Lacob asked Kuminga to keep an open mind about a future together, sources said.

But Lacob, while involved, opinionated and willing to spend, has never demanded specific rotation decisions, sources said. Kerr, a four-time champion coach, will be given the same power he has always had over his operation in his 12th season with the Warriors. Kuminga's side understands that and knows -- considering the history and roster dynamics in place -- a reunion comes with a likely bench role and the possibility of being minimized for stretches of the season.

Kuminga's personal relationship with Kerr isn't a problem. The messaging from Kerr and the Warriors is that Kuminga would have a substantial role to open next season, per sources. They could use his youth and scoring on the wing. But in negotiations, Kuminga's side has regularly referred to some postseason comments where Kerr highlighted the difficulty of fitting Kuminga next to Curry, Butler and Green for heavy minutes and expecting to win at the highest level. It's proof to them that the basketball fit is less than ideal for the trajectory of Kuminga's career.

That's why they voiced this message to the Warriors' front office in the process: Sell the contract, not the basketball. Phoenix (four years, $80 to $88 million) and Sacramento (three years, $63 to $66 million) have attached player options to their proposed deals and pitched the starting power forward job, sources said. That isn't available with the Warriors. He wouldn't get the 30 minutes per night consistently and the starting and closing role he desperately craves.

That's what brings the conversation back to the meeting with Lacob. In the lead-up, there was sentiment around Kuminga that Lacob would step in and at least deliver the type of financial pledge that signifies the long-term belief in Kuminga that he so often voices. Or, if not -- if the Warriors weren't willing to commit to what Turner and Kuminga were requesting -- maybe Lacob would show more of a willingness to green light a trade elsewhere and proceed with a basketball divorce that has often felt necessary.

They still don't believe that box has been checked.

WHILE THE NBA gathered in Las Vegas for summer league in July, Turner presented Dunleavy and Jon Phelps -- the Warriors' cap executive who helped concoct the one-plus-one offer to Kuminga -- with a three-year, $82 million offer, including a player option, sources said.

The Warriors have been hesitant to go that rich for that long for Kuminga, showing a concern about how the deal might age, sources said. The Curry, Butler and Green contracts all expire after the 2026-27 season. At the moment, they project to have clean books and flexibility in summer 2027.

The first season salary is also a crucial point of negotiation. While the Warriors haven't officially made any moves this summer, they've lined up all their other roster targets to pursue after the Kuminga domino falls, sources said.

The Warriors have planned to at least use their taxpayer midlevel -- Al Horford is the target -- and have had strong discussions with veterans De'Anthony Melton, Gary Payton II and Seth Curry, sources said. It's why Curry, Butler and Green are not agitating behind the scenes. They know the strategy, sources said, and have approved that anticipated result.

But the tentative plan hard caps them at the second apron and means $22.5 million is the most they could give Kuminga next season while holding 15 rostered players, a figure that has so far proven too low for Kuminga to accept in a multiyear deal attached to a team option.

KUMINGA'S GREATEST LEVERAGE is the one-year, $8 million qualifying offer, attached to an inherent no-trade clause. As the summer has dragged on and the discomfort in these negotiations has grown further, Kuminga has warmed further to the idea. The decision to sign it could very well play out up to the Oct. 1 deadline unless either side caves.

The financial drawbacks are straightforward. Kuminga would be turning down as much as $15.3 million extra next season and risking a career spiral that never allows him to recoup that money. It has become an extension league and Kuminga would be declining a larger set salary number to extend off into his next deal.

But Kuminga has stated a belief that he has multitime All-Star potential. He has lined up loss of value insurance to protect himself in the event he signs the qualifying offer. He's intrigued by the possibility of unrestricted free agency next summer, sources said, when at least 10 teams are set to have real cap space. He isn't obsessing over every lost dollar in the moment and sees the qualifying offer as a clean vehicle for career control. Rival teams, most notably the Kings and Suns, have recruited him this summer and his conversations with executives and coaches and others around the league have only emboldened his long-term belief that the risk could be worth the reward.

But there's a reason he hasn't taken the qualifying offer yet. Turner and Kuminga are holding out in case something more appealing -- via contract offer or sign-and-trade -- materializes, in part because of a belief in how imperative it is for the Warriors to avoid having him on the qualifying offer.

If Kuminga returns on it, he can veto any trade next season and -- on an $8 million expiring contract without Bird rights attached -- his market value is greatly diminished even if he were to approve a trade. The Warriors will lose control of a crucial roster-building tool during one of Curry's final contention seasons, walk a potential major distraction into the locker room and be at great risk of watching Kuminga, their 2021 No. 7 pick, walk away for nothing next summer.

But there are side benefits to that overall net negative that are being considered as part of the equation, sources said. Kuminga returning on the qualifying offer would allow the Warriors to remain below the first apron and, as a repeater tax team, save nearly $70 million in luxury tax money. They would still have Kuminga, a rotation wing, for a season on a cheap deal and would maintain his Bird rights, giving them the opportunity to revisit a long-term deal next summer or get value out of him in a sign-and-trade scenario, similar to what they did when Klay Thompson departed for Dallas. The Warriors worked Thompson into a six-team deal that delivered them Buddy Hield and Kyle Anderson.

But that would require Kuminga's cooperation. If he's on the qualifying offer, he would still plan to show up to training camp and be a part of this season's Warriors team, sources said, but their side views the qualifying offer route as an organizational burning of the long-term relationship. They would anticipate a clean split next summer, sources said, without motivation to let the Warriors recoup value unless necessary to get Kuminga where he would want to go.

As the Miami conversation laid bare, this is a relationship where trust and commitment, from both sides, appear to be lacking. Does Kuminga want to be there? Do the Warriors truly want him or are they just searching for a more valuable time to trade him?

A temporary reunion remains the expected scenario, but cap and restricted free agency dynamics have kept them in a summer staring contest.

Both are waiting for the other to blink.