PGA Championship: Experts' picks and betting tips

The second major of the year begins with the 2025 PGA Championship from Thursday through Sunday at Quail Hollow Club.

Which players do our golf experts think will win? Where do our betting experts believe there is value? We break down the favorites and much more ahead of the 2025 PGA Championship.

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Experts' picks to win | Betting roundtable

Experts' picks

Matt Barrie
Rory McIlroy: I believe in players who have their "run." And Rory is in his right now. After getting the career Grand Slam of his chest, he comes to a place he has won four times. It's his playground. And he'll win again.

Tory Barron
Justin Thomas: Call it recency bias, but JT is poised to win the PGA Championship for a third time. After putting an end to his nearly three-year winless drought with a playoff victory at the RBC Heritage in April and fresh off a runner-up finish at the Truist Championship, he has got the confidence (and the putter) to make some noise at Quail Hollow -- where he hoisted the Wanamaker Trophy in 2017. Disclaimer: If Brooks Koepka figures it out the one time I don't pick him to win it all, I'm defecting to LIV.

Michael Collins
Scottie Scheffler: How many times are we gonna disrespect WORLD #1 ?!? People mistake his demeanor as not being a killer. The competitor in him is gonna be seething. But once again, they'll learn.

Jeff Darlington
Justin Thomas: Something clicked for Thomas in October 2024. He finished tied for 2nd at the Zozo Championship -- and has ascended back to elite form since. He returns to the site of his first PGA Championship win... and now, he'll win again.

Michael Eaves
Rory McIlroy: Finally winning the Masters lifted a huge burden off his shoulders. He could be on the verge of playing the most relaxed golf he has played in nearly a decade, and a free-swing Rory is a scary Rory to the rest of the field. Plus, with four previous wins at Quail Hollow, he OWNS that course. Who's ready for some Grand Slam talk?

Peter Lawrence-Riddell
Rory McIlroy: Sometimes if a pick seems too easy, the best thing to do is just make it. He got the Masters/Grand Slam off his back and has been the best golfer in the world in 2025. Add in a course he has won at four times that's going to reward distance, and he's the pick.

Andy North
Shane Lowry: He has been playing very well, he's a very good driver of the ball and hits great iron shots.

Mark Schlabach
Bryson DeChambeau: If the winner is going to need length off the tee, solid long-iron play and consistent putting, give me Bryson. He's going to want to prove that his less-than-stellar showing on Sunday at the Masters was a fluke, and he's coming off a victory in Korea in the LIV Golf League. He finished in the top six in four of the past five majors, including runner-up at the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club. He'll get to add a Wanamaker Trophy to his two U.S. Open trophies.

Marty Smith
Rory McIlroy: He enters the PGA Championship having already won the two most prestigious tournaments played this year -- the Players Championship and the Masters Tournament. Fourteen years of constant questions and constant pressure are gone. Confidence in every facet of his game and with every club in the bag. Mental, emotional, spiritual, physical freedom.

And now he returns to Quail Hollow, a site at which he carries the lowest scoring average in PGA Tour history among 246 players who have recorded at least 20 rounds. Oh, and he has won at Quail four times.

Curtis Strange
Rory McIlroy over Scottie by 1. Always root for Masters Champ at PGA so we can talk of Grand Slam this year

Paolo Uggetti
Rory McIlroy: It feels too obvious given Rory's play and recent form at Quail Hollow to pick him as this week's winner, but I can't convince myself to go elsewhere with this choice. Maybe we are getting caught up in the moment -- he just showed us how hard it is to win one major, let alone two in a row -- but there's nothing about this week that doesn't set up well for the guy who has clearly been playing the best golf in the world this year.

Scott Van Pelt
Bryson DeChambeau: Quail Hollow is a big ballpark, as the saying goes. This weeks it's also an awfully wet golf course. The advantage of Dechambeau's length will be magnified this week and I think he wins.

Betting roundtable

Odds by ESPN BET

Who is your pick to win?

Tyler Fulghum, ESPN BET Live host
Xander Schauffele (+2000). It's really hard to avoid picking McIlroy or Scheffler, but the +500 price (or worse) on both golfers is very expensive. If I'm looking outside those top two, I'd consider Schauffele. Schauffele has the type of disciplined and well-rounded game to excel at a tournament such as this, where the distances are long and the competition is deep.

David Gordon, ESPN Research
Shane Lowry (+4500). There's a case to be made that Lowry should be near the top of the second tier of players, yet his odds don't quite reflect it. If it's not Rory or Xander, I'll take the player currently third in strokes gained: tee to green with top-six finishes in two of the past four PGA Championships.

Pamela Maldonado, betting analyst
Rory McIlroy (+475). I know he just won the Masters, but Quail Hollow is a different story; it's his kingdom. The course plays to his strengths -- booming drives and towering long irons -- which is why McIlroy has won here four times. He knows every contour of the course, and his playing style is tailor-made for this layout. It's a short price, but when McIlroy is at Quail, he's defending his throne.

Who is your favorite bet to make the top 10?

Fulghum: Patrick Reed (+550).

Except for Bryson DeChambeau, LIV golfers are mostly out of sight and out of mind. That provides value on these names in the majors, and the other LIV golfer who has performed relatively well in majors outside of DeChambeau since moving to LIV is Reed. He posted a third-place finish at Augusta in April and finished T2 in 2017 when the PGA was last played at Quail Hollow.

Gordon: Bryson DeChambeau (+140)

DeChambeau has more top-five finishes (three) than any other player in PGA Championships since 2020. His six top-five finishes in majors since 2020 have all come at different venues, which proves his ability to contend regardless of course style. Length off the tee with shorter rough has worked for recent winners at Quail Hollow (such as McIlroy and Wyndham Clark) and while I think Bryson is a great outright top-five pick, I'm taking the insurance with a top-10.

Maldonado: Jon Rahm (+190)

Rahm is long off the tee, precise with his long irons and doesn't back down from a tough track. Quail is built for guys who can muscle through the long par 4s and handle the pressure of the Green Mile, two things Rahm has in abundance. Even on an off day, Rahm's floor can be higher than most guys' ceilings. Even when his putter runs cold, he's still a threat because his approach play sets up so many good looks.

What is your favorite Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy bet?

Fulghum: McIlroy top-10 finish, Round 1 (+200)

It's hard to find a plus-money bet attached to McIlroy's name that is attractive, but I'll jump at this one. McIlroy is not usually a fast starter in majors, but this is a course that he dominates. Fresh off the win at Augusta, he could start fast, free and easy here.

Gordon: McIlroy over Scheffler: tournament matchup (-110)

Pam and Tyler have already said it best when it comes to McIlroy. While it feels daunting to fade a player who just tied the PGA Tour's 72-hole scoring record in his last start, McIlroy has the edge in course knowledge, length and putting.

Maldonado: McIlroy top-10 finish, Round 1 (+200)

The hard part is done. He completed the career slam. McIlroy is coming to Quail Hollow grounded, composed and in control. Golf is as much mental as it is skills, and he's got clarity and confidence. If he just plays to his natural game without pressing, given his course comfort, McIlroy's mindset will be focused and his game will be methodical.

Who are your favorite long shots/value bets (let's say 100-1 or longer)?

Fulghum: Tony Finau (+12500)

There's really nothing about Finau's game right now that suggests he'll contend at this event except for his distance off the tee. The price, however, is very attractive for someone of Finau's talent level, and the PGA Championship, unlike the other three majors, is the one most likely to produce a first-time winner out of nowhere.

Gordon: Denny McCarthy (+17500)

Tied for sixth at Quail Hollow last year and T-8 the year prior, McCarthy is one of three players with eight rounds of par or better over the past two years at this course (the others are Schauffele and Tommy Fleetwood). McCarthy's lack of distance off the tee is concerning, but clearly he makes up for it elsewhere when he comes to Quail. His best finish of the season is T-5 at Torrey Pines, one of the longest courses on tour all season, and I'll take a flier on that putter staying red hot.

Maldonado: Keith Mitchell (+11000)

His recent form is intriguing. Over his past four starts, Mitchell has posted five straight top-20s, including T-7 at Truist last week, showing a strong upward trend of consistency. His ball striking has been solid, while he's been making noise with tee-to-green gains. He does have two top-10 finishes at Quail Hollow, so +320 for a top-20 makes more sense, with a few bucks on +11000 for some fun.

Are there any other bets that stand out to you?

Gordon: Corey Conners to finish as low Canadian (+165)

Conners has cashed in this market in four of the past five majors -- the lone exception coming at last year's Open Championship -- and in six of the past eight majors, both times the low Canadian at the PGA Championship over that span. His five top-10 finishes on tour this season trails only Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy. He also finished T-13 and T-8 in the past two years at Quail Hollow.

Maldonado: Justin Thomas (-120) vs. Xander Schauffele

Thomas knows how to win here, and Schauffele, while having the tools to contend, just doesn't stack up with his approach game. Thomas' iron play is stronger, giving him an edge on a course that rewards iron play. In a matchup of ball striking, JT's consistency with his tee-to-green game makes the difference.