The Playbook: Shadow Reports, lineup locks for Week 15

Welcome to The Playbook for Week 15, which kicks off Thursday night with the Falcons at the Buccaneers.

This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.

Additionally, we have folded our Shadow Reports, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we're able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best fantasy guidance each week.

• If you want a more detailed look at some of this data, be sure to check out the weekly Shadow Reports: WR vs. CB Cheat Sheet. You can also take a look at the latest update of each team's rest-of-season strength of schedule.

All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.

• DFS values in the charts below (and their relative quality) are only provided for Sunday's main slate, which is why there are no values for the games scheduled for Thursday, Sunday night or Monday. For a closer look at the best values for Sunday's main slate, you can also take a look at Week 15's DraftKings DFS cheat sheet.

(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)

ATL-TB | CLE-CHI | BAL-CIN | LAC-KC | BUF-NE | WAS-NYG | LV-PHI | NYJ-JAX
ARI-HOU | GB-DEN | DET-LAR| CAR-NO| TEN-SF | IND-SEA| MIN-DAL | MIA-PIT

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Projected score: Buccaneers 23, Falcons 21

Lineup locks: Bijan Robinson, Bucky Irving, Kyle Pitts Sr.

Fantasy scoop: Emeka Egbuka has lost his "lineup lock" status following a brutal slump in which he has produced single-digit fantasy points in seven of his past eight games, including four straight. Egbuka's fall has come despite massive usage, including eight-plus targets in seven consecutive games. After averaging 20.5 fantasy points during his first five NFL games, Egbuka sits at just 8.9 PPG since Week 6. Egbuka's 27% target share has been keeping him in the discussion for starting lineups, but that could be in jeopardy moving forward with Mike Evans (out since Week 7) expected to return from injury this Thursday. With Evans and Chris Godwin Jr. in the mix, Egbuka is best viewed as a boom/bust WR3.

Over/under: 43.8 (8th highest)
Win probability: Buccaneers 57% (12th highest)

Cleveland Browns @ Chicago Bears

Projected score: Bears 24, Browns 18

Lineup locks: Quinshon Judkins, Harold Fannin Jr.

Fantasy scoop: Shedeur Sanders' third NFL start was a good one, as the rookie completed 23 of 42 passes for 364 yards, three touchdowns and one INT, adding 29 yards and one score on three carries. Sanders' big game is a good sign for his future in the pros, though he's unlikely to emerge as a consistent fantasy option down the stretch. Sanders' big game was his first fantasy effort over 10.6 fantasy points and came against one of the league's shakiest defenses (Tennessee). However, although Sanders ran for a touchdown on Sunday, note that he totaled only 5 yards on two carries in his first two starts. Sanders should be rostered in superflex and dynasty formats, but he's no more than a fringe QB2 in Chicago this week.

Shadow Report: Downgrade Chicago's receivers against a Cleveland defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest WR fantasy points, including the second-fewest over the past eight weeks. Cleveland hasn't faced much volume (second-fewest WR targets) and, combining that with strong play (fourth-lowest pass EPA allowed), has surrendered the second-fewest catches and yardage to receivers. Only three receivers have reached 17 points against the Browns, and all came prior to Week 7. Rome Odunze (if back from injury) should be downgraded to WR3 territory, whereas DJ Moore and Luther Burden III should be considered for your flex only if Odunze remains sidelined.

Over/under: 42.3 (12th highest)
Win probability: Bears 69% (7th highest)

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals

Projected score: Bengals 26, Ravens 24

Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Derrick Henry, Chase Brown, Ja'Marr Chase

Fantasy scoop: Isaiah Likely posted a 4-25-1 receiving line Sunday and has exactly six targets and 12.5 fantasy points in consecutive games. This, after the fourth-year tight end failed to reach either of those marks in any of his first eight games of the season. Likely's playing time hasn't changed during the "hot" streak, but his target share has been progressively rising and he sits at a healthy 19% during the past two weeks. One of those games included a season-high 95 yards against these same Bengals in Week 13. Cincinnati continues to struggle badly against tight ends, having allowed the most targets, catches, yards, TDs and fantasy points to the position. Both Mark Andrews and Likely are viable streaming options this week.

Shadow Report: Zay Flowers is a strong bet to draw shadow coverage from DJ Turner, as he did when these teams met two weeks ago. In that game, Turner aligned against Flowers on 23 of his 33 routes, including 22 of 26 on the perimeter. Though Flowers had a long touchdown taken away on an iffy (at best) OPI call, he was limited to 1 yard on six targets. He was similarly unsuccessful when Turner shadowed him in each of the past two seasons: Week 11 of 2023 (Flowers scored 7.3 fantasy points) and Week 10 of 2024 (7.4).

Turner has shadowed often and has done exceedingly well in those spots. The 10 receivers he has shadowed averaged 7.2 fantasy PPG in the game, with only one reaching 13 points. The Bengals have quietly shown well against receivers overall, having allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to the position. Flowers should be downgraded and is very much a Week 15 bust candidate.

Over/under: 49.9 (4th highest)
Win probability: Bengals 55% (13th highest)

Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs

Projected score: Chiefs 24, Chargers 19

Lineup locks: Rashee Rice, Ladd McConkey, Travis Kelce

Fantasy scoop: Omarion Hampton returned from injury Monday night and was on the short end of a committee with Kimani Vidal. Vidal actually dominated in terms of snaps played (49-22), but opportunities were much closer, with Vidal totaling 14 carries and three targets to Hampton's 13 carries and two targets. Both backs were effective, with Vidal catching a 60-yard pass and Hampton following with a TD reception.

Hampton's role is likely to increase as the season progresses, but Vidal's heavy usage Monday suggests he won't completely disappear. Hampton has upside, but he's best viewed as a flex option in a tough Week 15 matchup against a Kansas City defense that has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. Vidal is best left on benches.

Shadow Report: Kansas City receivers should be downgraded against a Los Angeles defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to the position, including the fewest to the perimeter and fifth fewest to the slot. The Chargers have allowed the fourth-lowest catch rate (57%) and yards per target (6.8), as well as only six TDs to receivers. The 16.0 points scored by A.J. Brown on Monday night are the most Los Angeles has allowed to a receiver since Week 7. Rice remains a lineup lock, though Xavier Worthy is best left on benches.

Over/under: 43 (9th highest)
Win probability: Chiefs 64% (8th highest)

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots

Projected score: Patriots 27, Bills 24

Lineup locks: Drake Maye, Josh Allen, James Cook III, Stefon Diggs

Fantasy scoop: When we last saw the Patriots (Week 13), they were back to their old ways of a Rhamondre Stevenson-led backfield committee. The veteran Stevenson handled 12 carries and three targets on 38 snaps, compared to 11 carries and four targets on 30 snaps for TreVeyon Henderson. Henderson was more effective on the ground, but Stevenson did more damage in the passing game, which aligns with what we've seen throughout the season. Whereas Henderson is averaging 4.8 yards per carry and 5.2 yards per target, Stevenson sits at an ugly 3.2 yards per carry but a strong 8.6 yards per target.

We should expect the backfield split to continue, and the unfortunate reality is that neither back has been valuable in fantasy when both are active. In the 10 games they've played together, Stevenson is averaging 8.8 fantasy PPG (three games over 11.0 points) and Henderson is averaging 7.5 PPG (zero games over 12.6 points). Though this is a terrific matchup (the Bills have allowed the second-most touchdowns and seventh-most fantasy points to RBs), the timeshare reduces both to no more than flex options.

Over/under: 50.7 (3rd highest)
Win probability: Patriots 61% (11th highest)

Washington Commanders @ New York Giants

Projected score: Giants 29, Commanders 24

Lineup locks: Jaxson Dart, Wan'Dale Robinson, Deebo Samuel, Terry McLaurin

Fantasy scoop: Most weeks, we'd be looking to avoid these backfields, but considering that both defenses sit top three in yards allowed and top six in fantasy points allowed to running backs, Week 15 presents us with a few potential flex options. Chris Rodriguez Jr. has emerged as Washington's lead back, and while he's yet to clear 12.5 fantasy points in any game this season, he's found the end zone in four of his past seven outings. His upside is limited by a nonexistent role in the passing game, but he very well could make up for that this week against a Giants defense that has allowed a league-high 6.1 yards per carry and 16 TDs (fifth most) to RBs.

The last time we saw the Giants (Week 13), Tyrone Tracy Jr. was operating as the lead back but left the game early due to an injury. Tracy had delivered 130-plus yards and 16-plus fantasy points in two straight games prior to the injury, so if able to play this week, he'll be on the RB2 radar in this elite matchup. If Tracy is sidelined, Devin Singletary (102 yards and one TD on 15 touches in Week 13) would be the Giants' clear lead back and would find himself in the RB2 mix.

Shadow Report: Paulson Adebo is a good bet to shadow McLaurin this week, as he did when these teams met in Week 1. In that game, Adebo aligned across from McLaurin on 23 of his 29 routes, including 21 of 22 on the perimeter. McLaurin was held in check (2-27-0 on four targets), whereas Samuel (7-77-0) put together a solid showing. Adebo has since missed quite a bit of action due to injury, but he's also shadowed other top perimeter receivers, including A.J. Brown and Courtland Sutton. Of course, New York has struggled overall against the pass, sitting top five in catches, yards and fantasy points allowed to receivers. Expectations for McLaurin can be downgraded slightly, whereas Samuel stands to benefit.

Over/under: 52 (2nd highest)
Win probability: Giants 61% (10th highest)

Las Vegas Raiders @ Philadelphia Eagles

Projected score: Eagles 24, Raiders 13

Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Ashton Jeanty, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Brock Bowers

Fantasy scoop: Jeanty remains one of the toughest evaluations in fantasy, as his fantasy output hasn't quite matched his terrific volume. Jeanty sits 15th in carries and sixth in targets among RBs, but he's averaging just 3.5 yards per carry and 4.4 yards per target, both of which rank near the basement in the league. As a result, he sits 20th in yardage and 18th in fantasy PPG among RBs. Jeanty has overperformed expectations in terms of touchdowns (eight TDs, 6.7 expected), though three of them came in one game (Week 4) and they haven't helped much lately (12.1 or fewer fantasy points in three of his past four).

Still, Jeanty's heavy usage -- especially as a receiver (five-plus targets in five-straight games) -- is enough to keep him locked into lineups, especially this week in a good matchup against an Eagles defense that sits top 10 in yards, touchdowns and fantasy points allowed to running backs.

Over/under: 36.8 (Lowest)
Win probability: Eagles 85% (3rd highest)

New York Jets @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Projected score: Jaguars 28, Jets 15

Lineup lock: Travis Etienne Jr.

Fantasy scoop: Breece Hall is tough to justify as a lineup lock this week for a variety of reasons. For starters, he hasn't been a consistently good fantasy option this season. Hall sits seventh among backs in yardage, but the Jets' offensive struggles have limited him to only four touchdowns, which is not a fluke considering he has had only two carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line. He's hit for the occasional big game (15-plus fantasy points six times) but has mixed in plenty of duds (single digits in six games, including two of his past four).

Hall is also dealing with QB uncertainty (Tyrod Taylor left Week 14's loss with an injury and Justin Fields was inactive) and an extremely hard matchup against a Jaguars defense that has allowed the second-fewest yards, fifth-fewest fantasy points and third-lowest yards per carry (3.7) to RBs. Only Christian McCaffrey (26.1 in Week 4) has reached 20 points against Jacksonville. Hall has serious bust potential this week (especially if undrafted rookie QB Brady Cook is under center) and is no more than a fringe RB2.

Over/under: 42.8 (11th highest)
Win probability: Jaguars 89% (Highest)

Arizona Cardinals @ Houston Texans

Projected score: Texans 24, Cardinals 16

Lineup locks: Woody Marks, Nico Collins, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride

Fantasy scoop: Jacoby Brissett has reeled off eight -- yes, eight -- consecutive top-12 fantasy outings. (For perspective, no other quarterback has an active streak longer than Trevor Lawrence's four.) The Houston defense, meanwhile, has yet to allow a QB a weekly finish better than 14th this entire season. Talk about an unstoppable force vs. an immoveable object. Since taking over as Arizona's starting QB in Week 6, Brissett is averaging 20.5 fantasy PPG, which trails only Josh Allen (24.0) and Jaxson Dart (23.1) for best in the league during the span. Volume has been the key, as Brissett's 345 pass attempts (44 more than any other QB), 229 completions (+34) and 2,459 passing yards (+178) are easily tops in the NFL during the span.

Brissett's production will be enough to make him a valuable streaming option during Week 16 (ATL) and Week 17 (CIN), but he should be relegated to benches against Houston here in Week 15. A Texans defense that has held Allen (8.1 fantasy points) and Patrick Mahomes (6.3) in check over the past month has surrendered the fewest touchdowns (12) and fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.

Shadow Report: We should expect Derek Stingley Jr. to shadow either Harrison (if he returns from injury) or Michael Wilson this week. Stingley hasn't traveled since Week 9, but he has done so this season against top perimeter receivers, including Davante Adams, Mike Evans, Brian Thomas Jr. and Courtland Sutton. Regardless, this is a tough assignment for all Arizona receivers, as the Texans have allowed just seven TDs, the lowest catch rate (54%) and third-fewest fantasy points to receivers, as well as the lowest EPA against the pass. Only five receivers have reached 13 points against them, and the only two who reached 18 were superstars Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua.

Wilson is averaging 30.8 fantasy PPG in three games with Harrison out, but has zero efforts with double-digit fantasy points in 10 games with him in the lineup, so he'll only be a safe starter if he remains Brissett's top target. Harrison should be in lineups if healthy enough to play, but he obviously carries added bust risk.

Over/under: 39.9 (14th highest)
Win probability: Texans 79% (5th highest)

Green Bay Packers @ Denver Broncos

Projected score: Packers 24, Broncos 24

Lineup locks: Josh Jacobs, RJ Harvey, Courtland Sutton

Shadow Report: This one is a bit tricky, but there's a chance the Broncos choose to shadow Romeo Doubs or red-hot Christian Watson with Pat Surtain II this week. The reigning defensive player of the year has shadowed top receivers often, but it's unclear if Denver will determine Doubs or Watson as the priority. Watson seems most likely, as he's been outstanding as of late (18-plus fantasy points in three of his past four, with five TDs during the span), but Doubs has worked as the team's top receiver most of the season and spends less time in the slot than Watson (Doubs 19%, Watson 35%).

Regardless, this is a tough matchup for all Green Bay receivers, as Denver has allowed a league-low five TDs and the eighth-fewest fantasy points to the position. Only three receivers have reached 16 fantasy points against the Broncos, and none have reached 23. Watson should be viewed as a WR3/flex, whereas Doubs (zero catches last week) should be on benches.

Over/under: 47.6 (5th highest)
Win probability: Packers 50% (Lowest)

Detroit Lions @ Los Angeles Rams

Projected score: Rams 30, Lions 24

Lineup locks: Matthew Stafford, Jahmyr Gibbs, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Davante Adams, Jameson Williams

Fantasy scoop: Blake Corum exploded for 128 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 12 carries during Sunday's blowout win over Arizona. Despite the big day, the second-year back should not be in lineups. Corum's productive game (career highs in yards, TDs and fantasy points) was his first career effort with more than 14.1 points, and Corum remains second fiddle to Williams, having yet to play more than 37% of the snaps or clear 13 touches in a game in his career. Though Corum has been productive on the ground the past two weeks, it's come on a total of just 19 carries and he remains almost nonexistent in the passing game (13 yards on 11 targets).

Both Rams backs are in a tough spot this week against a Lions defense that has allowed only six TDs and the fewest fantasy points to RBs. Only one back (Quinshon Judkins in Week 4) has cleared 16 points against Detroit. Corum is valuable only as an insurance bench stash.

Shadow Report: Upgrade Rams receivers against a struggling and injury-plagued Lions defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points (most over the past eight and four weeks) to the position, as well as the third-most points to the perimeter. Detroit sits top five in yards and TDs (20) allowed to the position and will be without star defensive backs Terrion Arnold and Brian Branch for the rest of the season (not to mention that Kerby Joseph has been sidelined since Week 6). Nacua and Adams are well positioned for more high-end fantasy output.

Over/under: 54.3 (Highest)
Win probability: Rams 72% (6th highest)

Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints

Projected score: Panthers 20, Saints 19

Lineup locks: Rico Dowdle, Tetairoa McMillan, Chris Olave

Fantasy scoop: Tyler Shough didn't do much as a passer against the Buccaneers on Sunday (144 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) but still put up 21.3 fantasy points thanks to a career day as a rusher (7-55-2). Shough has delivered 17-plus fantasy points in three of his five starts, though the exceptions were single-digit duds. Shough's efficiency has been solid for a rookie, and while he has as many passing TDs as he does INTs (five each), he's helped his fantasy floor with six-plus carries in three straight games.

The second-rounder has done enough to make him a potential starting option in superflex formats, but he's not yet on the streaming radar in one-QB leagues, especially this week against a Carolina defense that has allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to QBs. Shough did throw for a career-high 282 yards and put up 19.0 fantasy points when these teams met in Week 10 but, with no teams on a bye this time around, the rookie is best left on waivers.

Over/under: 39 (15th highest)
Win probability: Panthers 52% (15th highest)

Tennessee Titans @ San Francisco 49ers

Projected Score: 49ers 29, Titans 18

Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, Jauan Jennings, George Kittle

Fantasy scoop: The Week 14 "where the heck did that come from?!" award goes to Tony Pollard. After failing to reach 15 fantasy points in any of his first 12 games of the season, including five straight single-digit efforts, Pollard exploded for 161 yards and two TDs on 25 touches against Cleveland. Pollard put up 28.1 fantasy points (his most since Week 11 of 2022) despite not seeing a single target.

The strong showing is notable, but so is the fact that Pollard ran all over a Browns run defense that has been struggling badly, having allowed the opposing lead back to score 17-plus fantasy points in five consecutive games. Set for a neutral matchup this week and still deferring work to Tyjae Spears (especially in passing situations), Pollard is very likely to crash back to earth this week. He's no more than a flex dart throw.

Shadow Report: Upgrade 49ers receivers against a Titans defense that has surrendered the eighth-most fantasy points to receivers (second most over expected). Tennessee sits top 10 in yards and TDs allowed and has surrendered a league-high 69% catch rate to the position. Ricky Pearsall hasn't done enough to justify a lineup spot just yet, but Jennings should locked into lineups.

Over/under: 46.7 (6th highest)
Win probability: 49ers 86% (2nd highest)

Indianapolis Colts @ Seattle Seahawks

Projected score: Seahawks 25, Colts 16

Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Fantasy scoop: Daniel Jones (Achilles) is done for the season, which, at least for now, positions Riley Leonard as the Colts' starting quarterback. The sixth-round rookie stepped in for Jones during Sunday's loss and completed 18 of 29 passes for 145 yards, zero TDs and one INT. Leonard added 5 yards and one TD with his legs, which is notable, as that's a big part of his game. During the 2024 collegiate season, Leonard posted a 164-1011-17 rushing line (excluding sacks) at Notre Dame, which included a hefty 10.6% scramble rate.

Leonard's presence is likely to lead to substantially less passing and scoring, which is, of course, bad news for the team's skill players. Taylor remains a lineup lock despite a tough matchup against a Seattle defense that has allowed a league-low 3.6 yards per carry to RBs, but the likes of Michael Pittman Jr. (more on him in a second) and Tyler Warren (Seattle has struggled against TEs, but he's totaled 37 yards over the past two weeks) are less appealing starting options.

Shadow Report: Already in a tough spot with Jones sidelined, Colts receivers will also have their hands full with Seattle's elite pass defense this week. Despite facing the fourth-most pass attempts, the Seahawks have surrendered the sixth-fewest fantasy points to receivers (fewest over expected) and the second fewest to the perimeter. Seattle has allowed the fewest receiving yards and a league-low 5.8 yards per target to receivers. The aforementioned Pittman handled 10 (27%) of Leonard's 36 aimed throws last week, but he's not an overly appealing flex option, nor are Alec Pierce and Josh Downs.

Shadow Report: Charvarius Ward (if cleared from the league's concussion protocol) is a candidate to shadow Smith-Njigba this week, as he did against Calvin Ridley (he scored 3.7 fantasy points in the game) and Davante Adams (15.6) earlier this season, and as he did against Nico Collins (14.8) and Brian Thomas Jr.(11.7) with Sauce Gardner sidelined the past two weeks. Assuming Gardner remains out this week, Ward will likely align on Smith-Njigba the 77% of the time he's on the perimeter. We don't need to downgrade him much, though Rashid Shaheed will make for an intriguing sleeper on the other side against Jaylon Jones.

Of course, if Gardner returns, all of Seattle receivers would have their hands full against Gardner, Ward and terrific slot corner Kenny Moore II. If both Gardner and Ward are out, Seattle's receivers would be in a good spot against replacements Jones and Mekhi Blackmon on the perimeter.

Over/under: 40.8 (13th highest)
Win probability: Seahawks 79% (4th highest)

Minnesota Vikings @ Dallas Cowboys

Projected score: Cowboys 25, Vikings 21

Lineup locks: Javonte Williams, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Justin Jefferson

Fantasy scoop: Jake Ferguson is well on his way to a terrific overall season, but his fantasy output has slipped as of late. During his first seven games, Ferguson averaged 8.3 targets (22% share) and 17.2 fantasy points with six touchdowns to his name. In his past six games, Ferguson has one touchdown and is averaging 5.3 targets (14%) and 8.4 fantasy points. Ferguson is doing just enough to hang in the TE1 discussion (three top-12 finishes in his past four games) but simply hasn't had any upside (under 12 fantasy points in six straight). Fantasy's No. 2-scoring TE on the season is a fringe starting option against a Vikings defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards and only 14 passing TDs.

Shadow Report: Downgrade Dallas' receivers against a Minnesota defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to the position. That includes the third-fewest points to the perimeter, which is where Pickens (90%) and Lamb (64%) align most often. Minnesota has surrendered the second-fewest catches and eight TDs to the position, and only eight receivers have reached double-digit fantasy points against them.

Over/under: 45.9 (7th highest)
Win probability: Cowboys 63% (9th highest)

Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Projected score: Steelers 22, Dolphins 21

Lineup locks: De'Von Achane, Jaylen Waddle, DK Metcalf

Fantasy scoop: Achane (rib) is expected to play this week, but especially considering Miami is playing Monday night, you'll want to have a "Plan B" in mind. That plan would likely include one of the team's backup runners, and we got an extended look at them on Sunday. Once Achane (22 snaps played) departed, Jaylen Wright was the next man up, playing 23 of 28 snaps while the team's starters remained in the game. Ollie Gordon II played six snaps with the starters and five of seven with the backups to close out the game.

In total, Wright produced 107 yards and one TD on 24 carries and zero catches on three targets, compared to a 5-17-1 rushing line for Gordon with nothing in the pass game. Miami has rotated Wright and Gordon as its No. 2 back throughout the season, but Sunday's usage suggests Wright would be the team's lead back should Achane miss time. He's the priority insurance stash heading into Week 15.

Over/under: 42.9 (10th highest)
Win probability: Steelers 54% (14th highest)