Want to beat the Oklahoma City Thunder? This five-step guide tells you how

The San Antonio Spurs' comeback win over the Oklahoma City Thunder in Saturday's NBA Cup semifinal had to be encouraging for contending teams that weren't in Las Vegas last weekend.

Beyond knocking the Thunder out of contention for an NBA Cup, which they could've added to the Finals trophy they claimed in June, the Spurs' victory also showed that Oklahoma City is beatable.

For a while, that was in question. The Thunder entered Saturday's game with a 16-game winning streak and a 24-1 record, which tied the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors for the best start in NBA history. And Oklahoma City accomplished that without its full complement of starters playing this season before Isaiah Hartenstein returned to the lineup Saturday.

Can we learn anything from San Antonio's 111-109 victory, and the Thunder's other 23 losses since the start of the 2024-25 season about how to beat Oklahoma City? Let's look at the five factors that have been most important in handing the Thunder a loss during that historic span:

Jump to a step:
No. 1: Keep them away from rim
No. 2: Take away second chances
No. 3: Get hot beyond the arc
No. 4: Limit turnovers
No. 5: Get Lucky

Step 1: Keep them away from the rim

Hold them under 55% shooting inside the arc

This certainly isn't unique to the Thunder, but limiting their shooting inside the arc has been close to a must to slow down their offense. Oklahoma City has shot 58.5% on 2-point attempts this season, which is third in the NBA. That's a significant improvement from last season, when the Thunder's 56% 2-point shooting ranked seventh.

During the 2025 playoffs, facing better premier defenses, Oklahoma City slipped to 53% on 2s -- a big reason the Thunder's path to the title wasn't as clean as their start to this season has been. Oklahoma City has been beaten just four times in that span while shooting at least 55% inside the arc, which is almost exactly league average (54.8% thus far).

The Spurs have been one of the league's stingiest 2-point defenses this season, allowing opponents to shoot just 53%, and San Antonio benefited from Victor Wembanyama's return against the Thunder. With Wembanyama on the court, Oklahoma City made just 7 of 21 2s (33%).

The Portland Trail Blazers, the other team to knock off the Thunder this season, aren't as effective overall (56% opponent 2-point shooting, which ranks 21st). But when rim protector Donovan Clingan and perimeter stopper Jrue Holiday are on the court, that drops to 52%, according to lineup data from NBA Advanced Stats. Both were in the starting five, as Oklahoma City shot 23 of 53 (43%) inside the arc in that 121-119 loss.

Step 2: Take away their second chances

Hold them below 30% offensive rebound rate

Remarkably, the Thunder have lost only once in the past two years when securing at least 30% of their available misses in a game. The loss was against the Golden State Warriors on Jan. 29, when Oklahoma City shot just 40% from the field, and Stephen Curry made a key late 3-pointer that was a little too early for his "night-night" celebration.

Part of the explanation is that the Thunder struggle in offensive rebounding. They rank 28th, making this the only one of the four factors on offense or defense that Oklahoma City isn't in the top 10.

It's probably more notable that the Thunder are so good without many second chances. For most teams, rebounding less than 30% of their misses is a losing proposition. Oklahoma City still wins those games nearly 80% of the time. But when the Thunder dominate the offensive glass, in addition to the other ways they control the possession game, they're almost always the ones telling opponents goodnight.

Step 3: Get hot beyond the arc

Make at least 37% of 3s

Inevitably, shot-making is part of the formula for beating Oklahoma City. The wide split between win percentage based on opponent 3-point percentage -- something that's primarily driven by randomness in a game -- is reflective of why the expression "make or miss league" is an accurate NBA cliché.

Again, from that standpoint, the Thunder's ability to withstand hot opponent shooting is remarkable. Oklahoma City has won 72% of the time over the past two seasons when opponents shoot at least 37% on 3s, better than the rest of the league when opponents shoot sub-37%.

The Spurs didn't follow this part of the equation, going 13-of-42 (31%) on 3s, and the Thunder shot just 24% beyond the arc. In general, Oklahoma City's shooting hasn't been nearly as important to the team's results as how well opponents have hit from 3.

The other Thunder loss this season was a classic example. Portland made 19 3-pointers at a 44% clip, both among their top three shooting performances this season. And opponents went 3-2 against Oklahoma City in last season's playoffs when making at least 40% of 3s, with one of the two losses by two points.

Step 4: Limit turnovers

Turn the ball over on less than 15% of plays

With the way the Thunder's transition offense feeds on turnovers, Oklahoma City's league-leading ability to force miscues is crucial for opponents to overcome. The Thunder have lost just one of their 24 highest games in terms of forcing turnovers over the last two seasons: the Indiana Pacers' improbable comeback in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.

The league has accomplished a 15% opponent turnover rate less than a quarter of the time, which is essentially an average game for Oklahoma City -- a testament to the Thunder's impressive ability to force turnovers.

The Spurs fell short of this benchmark on Saturday, with turnovers on 15.4% of their plays (counting an offensive rebound as starting a separate play within the same possession), but they kept their rate manageable. The Blazers did the same, at 14% of their plays in their November win.

Step 5: Get lucky

Get lucky in a close game

As these splits have emphasized, you can do everything right against the Thunder and still lose. Over the past two seasons, nine teams have met all four statistical criteria, three of those coming from the Denver Nuggets. Those teams are 6-3, with two of those wins (by Denver last November and Portland last month) coming by two points.

In other words, Oklahoma City is two baskets from having an above-.500 record in games where opponents follow the formula I've outlined. If no guarantee, achieving these benchmarks at least gives opponents a chance. No team has beaten the Thunder without accomplishing at least two of them, and realistically, it takes getting to three of four to avoid Oklahoma City having an overwhelming advantage.

With the Thunder on pace for 70-plus wins, beating them will never be easy. It's one thing to outline what opponents need to do to beat the Thunder, but executing them on the court against the defending champs is the real challenge.

Who might have the tools to do that? Over the course of the season, just three teams have on average met all four established criteria. One of them, alas, is Oklahoma City itself. The other two are potential Thunder playoff foes.

The Minnesota Timberwolves lost last season's conference finals in five games but did hand Oklahoma City its single worst loss of the past two years: A 143-101 Game 3 win. They also split the 2024-25 regular season series. The Thunder's 113-105 win over Minnesota last month was a one-point game with 1:02 left.

Having won the NBA Cup over San Antonio, the New York Knicks are favored to win the East as Oklahoma City is favored in the West, making this the most likely Finals pairing five-plus months out. The Thunder swept two games against New York last season, but the Knicks now play a different style under new coach Mike Brown. We won't get a look at how New York matches up with Oklahoma City until March, when the two contenders meet twice in possible Finals previews.