What do Northern Ireland need to secure World Cup play-off?

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Trai Hume celebratesImage source, Getty Images

Image caption,

Trai Hume scored a stunning second goal as Northern Ireland beat Slovakia 2-0 in their first game of the October window

ByAndy Gray

BBC Sport NI Journalist

There are two games remaining in qualifying and Northern Ireland's World Cup dream is still alive.

Any realistic hops of automatic qualification were ended by Germany in Belfast last month as Slovakia moved into second place in Group A with a win over Luxembourg.

A trip to Slovakia and a final home game with Luxembourg bring the campaign to a close for Michael O'Neill's side, and second place is up for grabs.

But even if they miss out on the top two, a play-off could still await thanks to their Nations League group win last year.

Here's the state of play ahead of the final round of fixtures, and how O'Neill's side can secure a play-off.

What has happened so far?

Group A tableImage source, BBC Sport

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The current standings in Group A after four games

Northern Ireland started their World Cup bid with a 3-1 win in Luxembourg.

Jamie Reid's early opener was cancelled out by Aiman Dardari, but goals from Shea Charles and Justin Devenny gave Northern Ireland the win.

However, Group A was blown wide open when Slovakia defeated Germany 2-0 in Bratislava.

Many had tipped the Germans to top the group and qualify automatically with ease, but Julian Nagelsmann's side ended the opening round of fixtures bottom of the pile.

They were under big pressure in their second game as Isaac Price brought Northern Ireland level in Frankfurt after Serge Gnabry's opener.

A defensive mistake allowed Nadiem Amiri to score and a Florian Wirtz stunner, both of which came in the space of three minutes, saw the Germans through on the night.

In the other game, Slovakia needed a 90th-minute winner from Tomas Rigo to battle past Luxembourg.

Then, in October, Northern Ireland cruised to a deserved 2-0 win at home against Slovakia courtesy of an own goal from Patrik Hrosovsky and a late stunning lob from Trai Hume to keep their hopes of a top two finish alive.

Germany picked up a resounding 4-0 victory against 10-man Luxembourg before their visit to Belfast three days later.

O'Neill's side produced a spirited display but ultimately fell to a 1-0 defeat against the Germans as Nick Woltemade scored his first goal for his country in their second game of the window.

Slovakia, like Germany, moved onto nine points courtesy of their 2-0 win over Luxembourg.

Germany top the group on goal difference, with Slovakia level on points with them in second and NI three points further behind in third.

The easiest way to qualify for the World Cup is to top the group and earn automatic qualification, while the runner-up in each group will progress to the play-off round.

The play-off picture

The current placings of the Nations League group winnersImage source, BBC Sport/Getty Images

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The ranking of teams in World Cup qualifying of the Nations League group winners

While finishing second would secure a play-off, Northern Ireland could still have a shot at reaching the World Cup even if they finish outside the top two thanks to their Nations League group win last year.

The top four Nations League winners who do not finish in the top two in their World Cup qualifying group will earn a play-off place.

Second place is still up for grabs, but let's talk the hypothetical worst-case scenario and Northern Ireland finish outside of the top two come the end of Group A in November.

In terms of ranking, Northern Ireland finished 12th out of the 14 group winners in the Nations League, which means they need eight of the 11 teams above them to qualify or have already booked a play-off spot.

While eyes have been on all groups throughout the campaign, ultimately there is only one more match that Northern Ireland need to keep an eye on.

If the Czech Republic beat minnows Gibraltar on Monday, 17 November - the same time NI take on Luxembourg in their final qualifier - then O'Neill's side will be guaranteed a play-off no matter what happens.

You would expect Germany to finish in the top two, and if they don't then NI would be the team to benefit in Group A.

England confirmed their qualification for next summer's tournament with a 5-0 win against Latvia.

Spain, France, Portugal and Norway are all assured of a top-two finish in their respective groups.

At least one of North Macedonia or Wales, who are currently battling with Belgium for qualification, will finish in the top two in Group J and will be the seventh of eight teams that Northern Ireland need to reach the play-offs.

So that leaves the Czech Republic in Group L, who should have enough to beat Gibraltar despite a late charge for second by the Faroe Islands.

Sweden and Romania, along with the team that misses out in Group J, will be the other teams to benefit from their Nations League group wins.

Who could Northern Ireland face?

Potential World Cup play-off pot seedingsImage source, BBC Sport/Getty Images

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The projected pots for seeding for the World Cup play-offs with two rounds of fixtures remaining

Now Northern Ireland are on the brink of a play-off, there is a clearer picture of who they could face in March.

The 12 runners-up in qualifying will be joined by four Nations League group winners, and they will be split into four paths - which each contain a semi-final and a final.

Should NI finish third in the group and qualify for the play-offs as a Nations League group winner, they would be ranked in pot four.

That would mean a semi-final against one of the pot one teams.

Seedings will be taken from the Fifa world rankings after qualifying has concluded but, as things stand ahead of the final window, that would be one of Italy (9th in rankings), Turkey (26th), Ukraine (27th) or Poland (33rd).

If Northern Ireland beat Slovakia to finish second in the group they would likely be in pot three, which would mean an away semi-final against a pot two team.

Currently, that would be one of Hungary (37th in rankings), Scotland (38th), Czech Republic (44th) or Slovakia (46th).

The play-off final is an unseeded draw, which means if Northern Ireland can negotiate a tricky away first tie, the final could be at Windsor Park.

What's next for Northern Ireland?

Northern Ireland finish their campaign with a trip to Slovakia on 14 November and at home to Luxembourg on 17 November.

You can watch both games on BBC Two NI, BBC iPlayer and the BBC Sport website and app.

If they reach the play-offs, one-legged semi-finals and a final will take place in March before the finals in the USA, Mexico and Canada start in June.

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