Who is the favorite? Is Scheffler still in contention? Looking ahead to the weekend at the U.S. Open

OAKMONT, Pa. -- We are through two days at Oakmont Country Club and only three players in the 156-man field remain under par: Sam Burns, JJ Spaun and Viktor Hovland.

How's that for a U.S. Open?

As the third major championship of the year makes the turn to the weekend, here's what we learned in Round 2 (which isn't quite over with 13 players needing to finish their rounds Saturday morning) and what to expect during the final stretch.

How far back do you think is still in contention?

Mark Schlabach: History suggests Sunday's champion is going to be one of the golfers currently in the top five on the leaderboard, but I'm not sure that's necessarily going to be the case at Oakmont Country Club.

According to Elias Sports Bureau, 11 of the past 12 U.S. Open champions were in the top five after 36 holes. The only exception was Matt Fitzpatrick, who was tied for 13th after the second round in 2022 at The Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts.

Only three champions in the 125-year history of the U.S. Open were outside the top 20 after 36 holes: Lou Graham in 1975 (tied for 27th), Larry Nelson in 1983 (tied for 25th) and Webb Simpson in 2012 (tied for 29th).

As difficult as Oakmont is playing, there have been some stellar rounds, as evidenced by J.J. Spaun's 4-under 66 on Thursday and Sam Burns' 65 on Friday.

Someone who is four or five shots back, or maybe even more, could put together two solid rounds. When U.S. Ryder Cup captain Keegan Bradley was asked if a 5-under 65 was possible on the weekend, he said, "If it rains maybe."

The skies had already opened up before 14 golfers finished their second rounds on Friday night.

Paolo Uggetti: It wouldn't shock me if someone at 5-over, even 6-over, made a bit of a run on Saturday, especially if the leading score remains around even par, but the real answer is 4-over because that's where Scottie Scheffler is.

Scheffler battled on Friday despite showing plenty of frustration as he was unable to gain any ground on the top of the board. A 71 wasn't exactly what he had in mind and yet he's still not out of it just seven shots back of Sam Burns at 3-under. Oakmont is a ball striker's course and no one is better at that than Scheffler.

"At the U.S. Open I don't think you're ever out of the tournament," Scheffler said. "Put together two decent days, I may be in 25th or 30th place or something like that after today, and like I said, by no means is that out of the tournament."

The No. 1 player in the world beelined it to the driving range after finishing his round and appeared frustrated with something as he worked with his longtime swing coach Randy Smith. If there's any skepticism about Scheffler is that he seems to be fighting something in his swing. But much like at the PGA Championship, where a session with Smith unlocked him, I could see him figuring it out quickly. That spells trouble for the rest of the field.

What is the forecast for the weekend and what impact could the weather have?

Uggetti: As the second round was close to wrapping up on Friday night in Pittsburgh, the skies dropped a torrential downpour on the golf course that lasted over an hour and is bound to change how Oakmont plays tomorrow and beyond.

There is set to be more rain overnight and thunderstorms into tomorrow. Currently, the forecast calls for a 90 percent chance of rain Saturday and 70 percent Sunday. With no real wind to speak of -- at least not to the point of affecting shots too much -- it appears those who made the cut will likely get a softer Oakmont this weekend.

But if you're still looking for high scores and few players over par, don't fret. The rough will be even healthier and tougher to get out of and the USGA should be in position to play around with even more pins and green speeds that could still keep this tournament tough despite the wet conditions.

"I'll play in anything unless it's lightning pretty much or tornados," Ben Griffin, who sits at even par, said. "It's just more of an annoyance than anything. But from a swing standpoint, I don't mind playing in the rain, and obviously it softens conditions most weeks. It'll probably make it maybe slightly easier or maybe we'll have to start thinking about spin control a little bit with the wedges if it really rains. What's the projection? What does the rain look like tomorrow? Steady all day? Bring it on. I don't really care. I'm down for whatever."

Who do you think is the favorite now?

Schlabach: I think there might be 10 to 15 golfers who could win at this point. Sam Burns had struggled mightily in majors until tying for ninth at last year's U.S. Open, which was surprising for a guy who has won five times on the PGA Tour.

Maybe this week is his time. He's one of the best putters in the world and needed only 55 putts in the first two rounds. His iron play this week has been stellar (he's gaining more than two strokes on approach) and his short game has helped tremendously, too (he's gaining about two strokes in short game).

Burns already has carded 11 birdies in two rounds, which was how many Dustin Johnson had while winning the 2016 U.S. Open at Oakmont.

"I think at times, [I was] trying to be a little too perfect around major championship golf courses, and I think especially around here, honestly it kind of forces you to take your medicine because a lot of times that's the only option you have," Burns said. "I think for this golf course, you really just have to free it up. It's too hard to try to guide it around here. You're going to hit some in the rough, you're going to hit some in some bad spots, you might as well do it with authority. Yeah, it's going to be a fun weekend."

It's the eighth time Burns has held at least a share of the 36-hole lead in a PGA Tour event. He won once in the previous seven, at the 2021 Valspar Championship.

Uggetti: Seven of the nine players who have won a U.S. Open here at Oakmont were first-time winners and I keep looking at Viktor Hovland, one of only three players under par, as a perfect candidate to continue that trend.

Hovland has had two very different statistical rounds. On Thursday, he gained over four strokes on the field with his approach play but lost over three with his putter. On Friday, he lost nearly half a stroke on the field with his approach play and gained almost two shots with his putter. As vexing as that is, I think where he stands for the tournament makes sense: top-15 in strokes gained off the tee, approach play and short game while 111th in strokes gained: putting.

This makes his task pretty simple: if his putter improves, he will remain in the mix. He's too good of a ball-striker to not be there. Plus, while various players appeared broken by how hard the course played Friday, Hovland remained quite calm.

When asked at what point during his round today he was close to losing his mind, Hovland shrugged.

"I didn't really come close," Hovland said. "I kept it together pretty nicely."

Come the weekend at Oakmont, that in itself could be a huge asset.

Sleeper to contend over the weekend?

Schlabach: Is it fair to call a former world No. 1 and Masters champion a sleeper? If so, Adam Scott might be the pick after he posted his second straight round of even-par 70 to move into a tie for fourth.

As the 44-year-old Scott said after Friday's round, he's trying to play "old-man-par golf." He's the fifth-oldest player to be in the top five after 36 holes in the U.S. Open in the past 20 years, according to Elias Sports Bureau.

"It's just hard out there," Scott said. "It's hard to keep it going when guys have got on a run. It seems like they've come back a bit."

Scott hasn't done anything spectacular over the first two rounds, but he has avoided big numbers and covered up bogeys with birdies. He had five bogeys and five birdies in the first round, and then three of each in the second.

The Australian is averaging 313 yards off the tee and has hit 17 of 28 fairways. He's gaining about two strokes off the tee on the field. He's also gaining more than two strokes on approach, hitting 27 of 36 greens in regulation, which ranked second in the field.

"I've been in the fairway off the tee, and therefore there hasn't been too much stress in the rounds," Scott said. "I think I've played well off the tee, and the rest of the game has been okay from there."

Scott didn't have a top-10 in 11 PGA Tour starts this season. The 2013 Masters champion missed the cut at Augusta National, but got in the mix at Quail Hollow and tied for 19th.

It seemed that his best golf was in the rear-view mirror, or at least that's what I wrote earlier this week. Boy, I was wrong.

When Scott was asked to describe his window to win a major on Friday, he answered, "Ajar."

Uggetti: There's a player on this board who thrives and relishes setups like these and it's Brooks Koepka and he's just five shots back with only eight guys in front of him.

Koepka nearly looked to grab control of this tournament Friday morning when he shot 35 on the back and even got to 3-under at one point. The front was far less ideal as he made four bogeys to put a damper on a solid showing. But this is the U.S. Open, which Koepka has already won twice before. Nobody gets up for these kinds of tests better than Koepka.

As he explained Thursday, his recent work with his coach Pete Cowen has helped him get his bad habits out and his swing back on track after missing the first two cuts at the majors this year.

"It's started to feel good. It's starting to click," Koepka said. "I'm starting to see the ball flight evolve where it's a nice little fade and I don't have the two-way miss going. Very consistent now."

Much like Hovland, Koepka has struggled around the greens, losing shots with both his short game and his putting. If that improves, even slightly, he will be a factor this weekend.

Biggest disappointments?

Schlabach: Where do you start? There were so many high-profile golfers who missed the cut: Patrick Cantlay, Wyndham Clark, Phil Mickelson, Cameron Smith and Ludvig Åberg were 8 over; Tommy Fleetwood was 9 over; Dustin Johnson and Bryson DeChambeau were 10 over; Sepp Straka was 11 over; Justin Thomas was 12 over; Justin Rose was 14 over; and Shane Lowry was 17 over.

It has to be DeChambeau, right? He was the defending U.S. Open and was in contention in the final round at last month's PGA Championship at Quail Hollow Club. He couldn't tackle Oakmont, however, as he carded a 7-over 77 on Friday.

DeChambeau's second-round scorecard included eight bogeys, one double-bogey and three birdies. He's usually one of the best putters in the field, but he lost about 1 ½ strokes on the greens and needed 61 putts in 36 holes. He never seemed to get a grasp of the lightning-fast speed. He wasn't accurate off the tee (13 of 28 fairways) and his new irons didn't hold up great, as he hit 20 of 36 greens in regulation.