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Just ahead of the winter break, Transfermarkt has updated the market values of 496 Bundesliga players. At the very top, there has been a slight adjustment. Bayern Munich star Jamal Musiala, who has been out with a significant injury since the FIFA Club World Cup, saw his market value adjusted downwards by €10m to now €130m. As a result, the Bayern playmaker, who signed the most significant contract in club history, will now share first place as the Bundesliga's most valuable player with teammate Michael Olise (unchanged).
“As part of the winter updates, Transfermarkt has decided to reevaluate all the top players,” Transfermarkt Market Value Coordinator Tobias Kröger said. “As part of that process, the top 10 has been readjusted. Musiala is returning from a serious injury he suffered last summer, and it is impossible to say when he will return to the pitch. Other top players, such as Bukayo Saka, Jude Bellingham, Florian Wirtz, and Alexander Isak, have been downgraded. Despite all this, Musiala remains the most valuable player together with his teammate Olise.”
Musiala isn’t the only top player to be downgraded at Bayern Munich. Despite already scoring 32 goals and four assists in 29 games across all competitions this season, Transfermarkt has opted to downgrade Harry Kane from €75m to €65m. “Unfortunately, Kane is being downgraded because of his age,” Kröger said. “Despite being excellent and scoring goals at an unbelievable rate. With a market value of €65m, Kane remains the most valuable player in his age category.” Indeed, Kane’s market value among over 32-year-old players put him €35m ahead of Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah.
Bayern market values: Downgrade for Chelsea’s Jackson – Wonderkid Karl up
Musiala and Kane aren’t the only Bayern Munich players to be downgraded. On loan from Chelsea, Nicolas Jackson saw his market value drop by 10% from €50m to €45m. “He is a solid squad player at Bayern,” Kröger said. “As expected, he hasn’t gotten past Kane. He is going to leave Bayern Munich after the season and return to England, and should have a bit of a market in England or perhaps Spain.” Those aren’t the only downgrades at Bayern. Also down 11.1% is captain Joshua Kimmich. Now 30, the midfielder’s new market value is €40m. Finally, Korean center-back Min-Jae Kim is also down. Out of form for months, Kim sees his market value drop by €7m from €32m to €25m.
Other downgrades at Bayern Munich include Serge Gnabry (-€2m to €20m), Leon Goretzka (-€7m to €15m), and Sacha Boey (-€3m to €15m). That’s where the bad news ends for Bayern Munich. Indeed, the Rekordmeister have been in excellent form, and that’s also reflected in his market value. Dayot Upamecano (+€10m to €70m), Aleksandar Pavlović (+€5m to €65m), Tom Bischof (+€10m to €40m), Konrad Laimer (+€7m to €32m). Upamecano is undoubtedly a player to highlight. The Frenchman has turned around his career under head coach Vincent Kompany, and with his contract up at the end of the season, is already one of the hottest commodities on the transfer market.
One of the hottest commodities in the Bundesliga and beyond is young Lennart Karl. The 17-year-old has burst onto the scene this season. “You can definitely describe him as a wonderkid,” Kröger said. “Within a few weeks, the 17-year-old has played himself into Bayern’s starting XI. He might be the most exciting player this season.” Karl has also written history this year. The attacking midfielder became the youngest player in Bayern’s history to score in the Champions League, and he hasn’t stopped there. “In the Champions League, he has scored in the last three games and is, therefore, in the spotlight,” Kröger added. Naturally, that’s also a record, as he is the youngest player to score in three consecutive Champions League games. With the hype in mind, Karl sees his market value increase by 200% from €20m to €40m, making him by some distance the most valuable player born in 2008.
Bundesliga market values: Diomande, Ouédraogo, El Mala – Wonderkids on the rise
Karl isn’t the only wonderkid on the rise in the Bundesliga. Over at RB Leipzig, two young stars are having their breakout seasons: Yan Diomande and Assan Ouédraogo. “Yan Diomande’s ascend has been incredible,” Kröger said. “Signed for €20m after making just 10 LaLiga games, he is already a difference maker. Only a few could anticipate him being such a success, and top clubs from all over Europe want to sign him.” The 19-year-old saw his market value increase by €25m from €20m to €45m. The jump wasn’t quite that big for Ouédraogo. “He has finally made it in the Bundesliga,” Kröger said. “He became a regular starter and scored on his German national team debut. His biggest weakness is injuries.” Currently out with a knee issue, Ouédraogo’s market value increase is still 180% from €10m to €28m.
Ouédraogo and Karl are two of the most talked-about young German talents this fall. The third is young 1.FC Köln winger Said El Mala, who is already being compared with club legend Lukas Podolski. “He has played himself in the hearts of all Bundesliga fans,” Kröger said. “His blistering pace and dribbling make fans stand up in their seats. He has a great shot and fantastic technique. Overall, he is a complete package. That’s also been noticed by national team coach Julian Nagelsmann, who has already nominated him for Germany. There is no doubt, El Mala will be one of the most talked about players in the upcoming transfer window.” How much will Köln ask for the forward? Already, fees in the region of €70m have been speculated. Transfermarkt has been a bit more conservative with him, increasing his market value from €18m to €40m.
Another young German player to watch is Werder Bremen center-back Karim Coulibaly. “Thanks to injuries, Coulibaly has been promoted to the first team, and just after a few games, interest from other Bundesliga clubs and Premier League sides has been high,” Kröger said about the 18-year-old U19 German national team defender. “He has made a massive step forward in his development over the summer and is the sort of player that is usually in demand on the transfer market.”
Bundesliga market values: Former Leicester star shines – Tottenham loanee on the rise
Coulibaly isn’t the only young defender to stand out in Northern Germany. Not far from Bremen, in Hamburg, Luka Vusković is quickly becoming one of the Bundesliga's biggest stars. “Vusković has underlined why he is considered one of the biggest center-back talents in Europe,” Kröger said. On loan from Spurs at Hamburger SV, the Croatian national team player is the leader of Hamburg’s backline. That’s unusual for an 18-year-old playing in one of Europe’s top leagues. Statistically, he is one of the best players in the air in Europe and can score goals. He seems to be made for the Premier League.” And he will undoubtedly return to England. Vusković saw his market value increase by €22m from €18m to €40m. Too much for Hamburg to make the transfer permanent.
Also on loan from Leicester at VfB Stuttgart is Moroccan national team player Bilal El Khannouss. Die Schwaben, however, have secured an obligation to buy in the deal. Once triggered, Stuttgart would be on the hook for €25m. “Great with the ball, technically gifted and always able to score, El Khannouss has been a great signing,” Kröger said. Without a doubt, Stuttgart would trigger his option at this point and make the deal permanent. After all, his market value has risen by €4m, from €28m to €32m. “In hindsight, his transfer was a steal for Stuttgart,” Kröger concluded.
How Transfermarkt market values work
The Transfermarkt market values are calculated, taking into account various pricing models. A major factor is the Transfermarkt community, whose members discuss and evaluate player market values in detail. In general, the Transfermarkt market values are not to be equated with transfer fees.
The goal is not to predict a price but an expected value of a player in a free market. Both individual transfer modalities and situational conditions are relevant in determining market values. Examples of this are listed below. Transfermarkt does not use an algorithm (you can find the detailed market value definition here).
