ESPN
Jan 8, 2026, 11:25 AM ET
Everything that happens in sports has additional context when viewed from a betting perspective. From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.
Our betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, aims to provide fans a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation.
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Jan 8: Hoosiers-Ducks winner to be favorite in national title game
By David Purdum
The winner of Friday's semifinal between the Indiana Hoosiers and Oregon Ducks is expected to be the favorite in the national championship game, regardless of the opponent or any home-field advantage in play on Jan. 19, in Miami Gardens, Florida.
Early lines on potential championship game matchups have Indiana or Oregon favored over either the Miami Hurricanes or Ole Miss Rebels. DraftKings Sportsbook lists Indiana as a 5.5-point favorite over Miami and an 8.5-point favorite over Ole Miss. Oregon is listed as a 1.5-point favorite over Miami and a 4.5-point favorite over Ole Miss.
The College Football Playoff championship will be played Jan. 19, at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, the Hurricanes' home field. Miami went 7-1 at home this season. Oddsmakers for Hard Rock Bet believe that even though ticket sales would be more divided for the national championship game than a traditional home game, Miami would still benefit from its familiarity with the stadium and not having to travel. A spokesperson for Hard Rock Bet said the sportsbook's oddsmakers believe home-field advantage is generally worth 2.5-3 points.
First, Miami needs to get past the underdog Rebels on Thursday in Glendale, Arizona. The Hurricanes are 3-point favorites over the Rebels. In the other semifinal, Indiana is a 3.5-point favorite over Oregon on Friday in Atlanta.
Nationally, bettors are divided on the Hurricanes and Rebels. At DraftKings, approximately 56% of bets on the outright winner between Ole Miss and Miami were on the Hurricanes as of Thursday morning. BetMGM was reporting similar even money-line action on Thursday's game. However, at Hard Rock Bet, the only licensed sportsbook in Florida, a larger majority of bettors are unsurprisingly backing the Hurricanes, as 70% of the money that has been wagered on Thursday's winner was on Miami, Hard Rock Bet reported.
The action is more lopsided in the second semifinal, with greater than 80% of bets on the Hoosiers to cover the spread against the Ducks at multiple sportsbooks.
Jan. 7: Ahead of wild-card weekend, sportsbooks are already offering Super Bowl ATD markets
By Doug Greenberg
It's never too early to start thinking about Super Bowl bets, right?
DraftKings and FanDuel are offering markets on anytime touchdown scorer for Super Bowl LX. Seattle Seahawks RB Zach Charbonnet is the leader in the market at +450, followed by his teammates RB Kenneth Walker III and WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, then Los Angeles Rams WR Davante Adams at +500, according to DraftKings odds. Denver Broncos RB RJ Harvey (+550), Rams RB Kyren Williams (+550) and Rams WR Puka Nacua round out the top options.
Clearly, the odds are mostly a reflection on those teams' likelihood of getting to the championship game: the Seahawks (+330), Rams (+425) and Broncos (+650) are the current odds leaders to win the big game.
DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN that this could be a good way for bettors to get value now if they truly believe a certain team could end up in the Super Bowl. To that end, FanDuel reports that Charbonnet and Smith-Njigba have been two of the most popular bets thus far in the market.
But the one name very much standing out is Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen (10-1), who has the second-most action at FanDuel and the most at DraftKings. In general, the latter is seeing some more longshots getting attention, with Bills RB James Cook III (10-1), San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey (20-1), as well as Philadelphia Eagles TE Dallas Goedert (22-1) and RB Saquon Barkley (11-1) comprising the top-five most-bet.
Overall, the sportsbooks are not seeing a ton of action in the market just yet, but Avello sees it as more of a tool to get bettors into the playoff spirit.
"It's just about getting people excited, just getting it out there that the Super Bowl's coming and we have some content out there to whet the appetite," he said. "We're going to have a lot of content up and so we're giving you a taste of what's to come."
Jan. 2: Team motivations, player incentives and Week 18's lines
By Doug Greenberg
Handicapping the final week of the NFL season is a dubious proposition. With half the league already eliminated from playoff contention, bettors and bookmakers alike have to get creative with wagers.
Sure, there are meaningful games in Week 18 -- such as Saturday's NFC contests and Sunday night's AFC North "win or go home" showdown -- but other than those, Sunday's final day of the regular season is filled with contests of uneven, unclear or non-existent motivations.
The Green Bay Packers, for example, are locked into their playoff slot and are choosing to rest many key players, making them 7.5-point road underdogs against the playoff-eliminated Minnesota Vikings. Similarly, the Los Angeles Chargers could wind up in a variety of playoff seeds, but are still sitting several key players amid a host of injuries, making the Denver Broncos (themselves fighting to maintain the AFC's No. 1 seed) huge 12.5-point favorites, per DraftKings odds.
However, there are some cases that are less straightforward. Joey Feazel, head football trader at Caesars Sportsbook, notes that even though the Detroit Lions are out of the postseason, head coach Dan Campbell could be motivated to play spoiler for his former assistant coach Ben Johnson, whose Chicago Bears are looking to improve their fortunes for the NFC playoffs.
"Adjusting odds based on motivation is always a challenge... but we continually refine our process to improve," Feazel said via email.
The other main motivation in Week 18 is of the financial nature. Over the past few seasons, NFL spectators have become more aware of contract incentives that allow individual players to cash in on season-long goals, which becomes especially relevant over the regular season's final weeks. For example, Chargers WR Keenan Allen sits at 73 receptions and, should he hit 80 by the end of the regular season, he'd make an additional $750,000.
BetMGM senior trading manager Tristan Davis said that the book's trading team is "treating many games in Week 18 like the preseason, which means prop markets will be released closer to game time with team/player motivations unknown." True to form, no major book has released receiving props on Allen as of publish time.
"As far as these player incentives are concerned, we're totally aware and the props team is totally aware," DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN. "We'll do our normal projections and then we'll slightly shade based on what those incentives are and as the money comes in."
Some incentives are harder to nail down and can even conceivably affect team performance. Miami Dolphins edge rusher Bradley Chubb has a number of individual stats incentives on the line, but many of them are tied to the Dolphins finishing top 20 in points allowed... and they sit at 21st going into Week 18.
Avello also says his team won't make adjustments for a player that stands to make money off of a marginal stat increase, such as Carolina Panthers RB Rico Dowdle needing seven scrimmage yards to hit an incentive, or one playing in a truly meaningful game, such as Seattle Seahawks QB Sam Darnold.
"Yeah, he has incentives to get there, but in a game like this," said Avello, "would it be any more incentive than to win this game and to get the number one seed and to win the division?"
Dec. 30: MVP favorite Nikola Jokic off the board after injury
David Purdum: Nikola Jokic went from the favorite to off the board in the odds to win the NBA's regular-season MVP, after suffering a hyperextended left knee in Monday's game against the Miami Heat.
The Denver Nuggets announced Tuesday that Jokic will be re-evaluated in four weeks, meaning he could miss approximately 15-16 games. In order to qualify for the MVP award, players cannot miss more than 17 games. (Jokic has played in every game this season).
On Monday, Jokic was the MVP favorite at +105 at DraftKings. The sportsbook removed him from the MVP betting options after his injury. Oklahoma City's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is now the favorite at -450.
Jokic is the latest and biggest blow to the injury-depleted Nuggets, who are now down four starters. Denver, which has been playing without starters Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun and Cam Johnson, is third in the Western Conference, behind the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs.
Jeff Sherman, a veteran NBA oddsmaker in Las Vegas, said if the Nuggets were only missing Jokic, he'd have them around 10th in his Western Conference power ratings. "They should be getting others back during [Jokic's] absence," Sherman of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas told ESPN. "I have to see something out of them first, but, interchangeably, yes, they are currently in the mix at the bottom ... almost a replica of the [Indiana] Pacers."
The Indiana Pacers, at 6-27, have the worst record in the NBA.
