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Raphinha downgraded
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Following the market value update in the Premier League earlier this week, Spain’s LaLiga becomes the second major league updated by Transfermarkt. Altogether, 493 players in Spain’s top division received new market values, and there has been some movement at the very top, where Real Madrid superstar Kylian Mbappé joins Lamine Yamal and Erling Haaland as the most valuable player not just in LaLiga but the world. The French striker, who is playing an incredible season, saw his market value increase by €20 million, seeing him return to his €200m evaluation for the first time since 2019.
“The Frenchman has played himself back into the absolute world elite, despite all the chaos at Real Madrid off the pitch,” Transfermarkt Market Value Coordinator Spain, Tobias Blaseio, said. “This year, he got better every month and shows more security in his actions. This December, he needs just four more goals to break Cristiano Ronaldo’s record for the most goals scored in a calendar year.” Indeed, 26 goals in 24 games across all competitions speak for themselves. “There is no doubt now that he is Real Madrid’s no.1 superstar ahead of Vinicius Junior and Jude Bellingham.”
Mbappé’s status as the biggest Real Madrid star is further underlined by the fact that Jude Bellingham saw his market value drop as part of this update. The Englishman dropped by €20m from €180m to €160m. “After a difficult second half of the season last year, the negative trend for Bellingham continued this season,” Blaseio said. “Perhaps the biggest issue is that he set the bar very high when he first joined Real Madrid, and that weaker periods are normal. But in his case, the poor form has persisted too long, and as a result, the market value has to drop. Although he is only 22, the drop in status within his club and national teams has been significant. Still, teams would probably pay astronomical fees to sign Bellingham, which is why his market value remains high.”
Market values Real Madrid: Alexander-Arnold downgraded – Güler up
Bellingham isn’t the only Englishman to be downgraded at Real Madrid. Newly signed Trent Alexander-Arnold saw his market value drop by €5m from €75m to €70m. “The Englishman had an unfortunate start in Madrid and is once again going to miss time with an injury,” Blaseio said. “The slight drop in market value stems from the fact that he is still new in the squad, and players often need time to adapt to Real Madrid. Internationally, his standing hasn’t dropped significantly, and English clubs would probably sign him in a heartbeat for a significant fee. Whether he has the level to play at Real Madrid is something that he will have to show in the second half of this season.”
Meanwhile, question marks continue to surround Brazilian winger Rodrygo. “It has been a year to forget for Rodrygo,” Blaseio said. “He scored his last league goal or assist in January. In other words, he hasn’t delivered at all for his team and has completely lost his drive. A transfer in the summer didn’t seem to be an option for him, because nobody wanted to pay the whole package of transfer fee and salary, which begs the question of how his career is going to continue. Will he be able to turn around his career in Madrid, which few expect, or will the club move away from their significant transfer demands?” There is no doubt that Real Madrid will have to reduce their demands if they want the player to move on, after all, Rodrygo’s market value has been halved since 2024.
There has been both good and bad news for two of Real Madrid’s top talents. First, the bad news: Brazilian striker Endrick sees his market value drop again, this time by €10m from €35m to €25m. “The Brazilian has played just one minute under head coach Xabi Alonso,” Blaseio said. “The goal is now for him to go out on loan, but there is no doubt that his standings has dropped and, therefore, a downgrade is unavoidable.” But while Endrick is dropping his Turkish teammate, Arda Güler has hit yet another level. “The young attacking midfielder has made another big step forward,” Blaseio said. “Whether it is in the middle or on the flanks, Güler has demonstrated his technical abilities and a €100m market value is now within reach.” Güler is up by €30m to €90m.
Market values Barcelona: Raphinha & Araujo drop – Fermín Lopéz up
At Real Madrid’s rivals, Barcelona, Yamal remains the most valuable player. But there has been some movement behind him. The biggest one involves Brazilian winger Raphinha, whose market value dropped by €10m from €90m to €80m. “The main reason for his market value drop is his age,” Blaseio said. “The Brazilian is now 29 and has missed time with injuries. Despite the drop, he remains ahead of Rodri in his age group. When in top form, he is a player who can make a difference, but he doesn’t have quite the international standing he deserves. With that in mind, if he continues to play well, he should be able to maintain his current market value.”
Another player with a drop in market value is Ronald Araujo. “Since the summer of 2024, the Uruguayan continues to see his standing drop at Barcelona,” Blaseio said. “Before 2024, he was able to play at a high level, but then after an injury, he never really managed to regain his form, and this season has been quite poor, plus there was the sending off against Chelsea. Ultimately, he was never able to fulfill the high expectations placed in him, and it remains to be seen whether he will be able to continue his career at Barça.”
There was better news for 22-year-old midfielder Fermín López. “He is an exciting player,” Blaseio said about the emerging Barcelona star. “He has made a gigantic step forward and is comparable to Arda Güler. The difference between the two is that López is two years older, which explains the difference in market value. But there is no doubt that Fermín is a great player and an important member of Hansi Flick’s team. With that in mind, he has the potential to increase his market value further if he manages to develop physically and become a bit more consistent.”
LaLiga market values: Downgrades for Nico Williams, and Atlético Madrid stars
Outside the two LaLiga giants, other top stars also saw changes to their market values. At Athletic Club, Nico Williams is among the downgrades. Wanted by Bayern Munich and Barcelona just last summer, the winger opted to stay in the Basque Country and has now seen his market value reduced from €70m to €60m. “Nico will remain a player who will be linked to top clubs whenever they are looking for a winger,” Blaseio said. “But the dynamic has now changed. While he was always a hot topic in the rumor mill, he has now been a bit average, and Athletic have struggled in the Champions League.” The new contract will also have taken him out of discussions with top clubs, and that has rightfully impacted his market value.
At Atlético Madrid, an Englishman and a US men’s national team player are among the downgrades. Conor Gallagher saw his market value drop by €5m from €40m to €35m. “He has been a part-time player at Atlético,” Blaseio said. “He was also heavily criticized after the defeat to Arsenal. He was brought on but was lacking aggressiveness, and with him on, Atlético conceded three goals in just six minutes. The expectation was that he would establish himself in his second season with the club, but right now, he is mostly in the press because he is being linked with a return to England. The decision-makers at Atlético remain patient, but if there is a big offer that would recuperate some of the €42m transfer fee, the club might consider selling the midfielder.”
Finally, there is USMNT player Johnny Cardoso. “It has been an unfortunate start for the American at Atlético,” Blaseio said. “At the start of the season, he hurt his ankle and then needed time to regain his fitness. Then, after just 14 minutes against Barcelona, he suffered another injury, this time on his knee. Some of it is just bad fortune, but still, a downgrade was unavoidable for the moment. Still, despite all that, he has the talent to become an important player for Diego Simeone.” The hope is that Cardoso can break through in the second half of the season and gain momentum ahead of the World Cup. If not, the €3m downgrade from €25m to €22m might be just a first step.
How Transfermarkt market values work
The Transfermarkt market values are calculated, taking into account various pricing models. A major factor is the Transfermarkt community, whose members discuss and evaluate player market values in detail. In general, the Transfermarkt market values are not to be equated with transfer fees.
The goal is not to predict a price but an expected value of a player in a free market. Both individual transfer modalities and situational conditions are relevant in determining market values. Examples of this are listed below. Transfermarkt does not use an algorithm (you can find the detailed market value definition here).
