Lopez-Stevenson picks: Can power crack Shakur's de...

Teofimo Lopez Jr. will put his WBO junior welterweight title on the line Saturday against Shakur Stevenson at Madison Square Garden in New York.

Lopez (22-1, 13 KOs), a former unified lightweight champion, makes the fourth defense of the belt he won with a unanimous decision over Josh Taylor in June 2023 at the Theater at MSG. Since then, Lopez, who enters the fight as a +250 underdog per DraftKings Sportsbook, has posted decision victories over Jamaine Ortiz and Steve Claggett in 2024, followed by a win over Arnold Barboza Jr. last May. While he hasn't recorded a stoppage since his seventh-round knockout of Pedro Campa in August 2022, Lopez has delivered several dominant performances, particularly against Taylor and Barboza.

Lopez's blend of power, footwork and athleticism could be key to his success, especially if he can close the distance and land combinations against a difficult target.

Stevenson (24-0, 11 KOs), the reigning WBC lightweight champion, moves up to 140 pounds for the first time as he seeks to become a four-division world champion after title runs at featherweight, junior lightweight and lightweight. Widely regarded as one of boxing's elite defensive technicians, Stevenson (-330 favorite) has been criticized at times for his conservative style, but his ring control and evasiveness have made him nearly untouchable as a professional. He also showed an offensive edge in a dominant victory over William Zepeda last July.

The matchup presents a classic stylistic contrast: Can Lopez solve Stevenson's defense and impose his offense on the inside? Or will Stevenson control the range with his jab and footwork, neutralizing Lopez's power?

Hall of Fame commentator Al Bernstein, former welterweight champion Shawn Porter, and former junior middleweight champion Raul Marquez break down how the fight could unfold and offer their picks for the winner.

Editor's note: Content has been edited for brevity and clarity.

Shawn Porter, former welterweight champion

The match up

Lopez has the intangibles in boxing that you can't teach -- athleticism, explosiveness and power. Stevenson was born with the ability to find timing and the ability to dictate the distance of the fight and the pace that it's fought at. While Lopez may have more things he can do in the ring, he has to figure out what he needs to do and against probably the most unhittable boxer in the game, and most importantly, when to do it. This is Stevenson's fight to lose and Lopez's fight to win.

How does Lopez win?

His patience will be key. He has to start the fight being patient by not rushing in to get off a big punch. The more he tries that, the easier it will be for Stevenson to time him and figure out his rhythm. If he fights off rhythm by using a simple jab and feints to find moments to throw combinations, his patience can help dictate the pace of the fight and his opportunities will come.

How does Stevenson win?

Stevenson just has to be himself to win. He likes his space and is great at controlling the pace. He has to force Lopez to come at him and fight on his front foot. An aggressive opponent benefits Stevenson. If he doesn't fight as himself, that's how he can lose. He fought aggressively against Zepeda, so he knows that he can't do that with Lopez because he is also a true offensive threat. But as long as he fights as he always has -- as a great counterpuncher -- he can win.

Fight prediction

I said that it's Stevenson's fight to lose and if it's somebody's fight to lose, that means they should probably win. It's a tough fight to pick but I'll say Stevenson wins.

Raul Marquez, former U.S. Olympian and junior middleweight champion, boxing analyst

Breaking down the fight

I'm glad this fight is happening when it's supposed to happen. I love the way Shakur fought in his last fight with [William] Zepeda. We didn't see him in his usual defensive mode. He was very offensive coming forward, trading with Zepeda and it was entertaining. Teofimo is one of those guys where it's about how they wake up that day. When Teofimo is on, he is a great and skillful fighter. He's a student of the game. He's very confident and explosive with great footwork. Shakur is a very intelligent fighter. Perhaps he doesn't have the power that Lopez has, but his ring intelligence and speed definitely make up for it.

This is boxing at its highest level. I think after three or four rounds, Teofimo needs to take over. I really think he's stronger and I think he's got more power. But can he do that with Shakur? I don't know.

How does Stevenson win?

Shakur has got to box by using his jab, straight shots up the middle and keep turning him. He has to keep circling around him, keep the foot in the center of the ring, stay away from the ropes and the corners. He also must throw punches in bunches and use combinations. Grab him, hold him, lean on him, get back on the outside with the jab, double jab and go to work. The key for him is to stay focused and keep his composure and box.

How does Lopez win?

There will be three or four rounds of trying to figure each other out, but sooner or later, he's going to have to attack. When he's on, he's very elusive, comfortable, loose, and having fun in there. When he does that, he's incredible and tough to beat. The key is to attack from all angles with combinations while always pushing forward.

Fight prediction

I think Shakur is supposed to win but it wouldn't surprise me if Teofimo wins. I'm going to go with Teofimo with the upset.

Al Bernstein, boxing commentator and member of the International Boxing Hall of Fame

The match up

It's intriguing because Stevenson is such a good boxer and a decent puncher, and Lopez is a good boxer-puncher as well. So, the two of them in some ways, even though they're lefty and righty, have a somewhat similar skillset. Although Stevenson, I think, is more of a pure boxer than Lopez. The biggest question is which Lopez shows up?

In terms of consistency, you'd give the edge to Stevenson even though he's had a couple of performances that people weren't happy about. But the other thing about this fight is we don't know if one of these fighters will perform off-brand a little bit. Will we see Stevenson be more aggressive than he sometimes is? I thought against [William] Zepeda [in July], he showed a burst of a lot of offense. And will Lopez, maybe, take a more measured approach than we expect? People always try to pressure Stevenson because he's a pure boxer -- will Lopez, who has boxing skills, change up his game? Those are some questions that we can ask ourselves.

How does Lopez win?

For Lopez, it's important, obviously, that he gives his best effort. And when he does give his best effort, he's a very good fighter.

I think at his best, he's the pure definition of a boxer-puncher, but maybe with the emphasis on puncher. He has power and knocks people out. I think that's what he's going to need to be in this fight. He's going to want to be aggressive; you have to do that and he's going to have to up his volume a little bit. I think Lopez is going to have to make sure he lets his hands go in this fight, and the pure act of that could help win him rounds. There have been fights in the past where he has had a little bit of a lull in terms of punch activity and he can't allow that to happen.

If he's busy, concentrates on both the body and the head and can cut the ring off -- which he's going to have to do without chasing Stevenson -- he has a chance to win.

How does Stevenson win?

I think he wins the way we always feel he wins fights, with really good boxing skills while making sure that he's just offensive enough to win rounds. Shakur better make sure he does enough offensively to secure rounds if the fight goes the distance, which it could very well.

Fight prediction

The problem in picking against Stevenson is that Lopez has a loss and that Stevenson wins most of the rounds in general in his fights. And so, you get the impression that he can control all this. Now, whether he can control it at that weight class and whether he can control Lopez remains to be seen. But I guess I'd give a slight nod to Stevenson, but I think it's a pick 'em fight.