How Scotland can guarantee play-off place by Sunday

World Cup qualifying: Scotland v Greece

Venue: Hampden, Glasgow Date: Thursday, 9 October Time: 19:45 BST

Coverage: Watch live on BBC Scotland & iPlayer; listen live on BBC Sounds, Radio Scotland & Radio Nan Gaidheal; follow live updates, goal clips and be part of the conversation on BBC Sport website & app

Scotland could be guaranteed a place in the World Cup play-offs by the time we all go to our beds on Sunday.

OK, OK, we hear you telling us to slow things down - but it is a realistic proposition.

Why? Well, Scotland's qualifying campaign got off to a near-perfect start in September when a draw at top seeds Denmark was followed by a win in Belarus.

Head coach Steve Clarke said those four points provided a "good platform" for his squad, but this month he is targeting two victories from two home games.

First up is a visit from Greece, who return to Hampden on Thursday seven months after consigning the Scots to Nations League relegation in a classy three-goal win.

Clarke's men then welcome Belarus to Glasgow on Sunday, with the hope a victory in that one will raise their points total to 10.

If Scotland are successful in achieving that, it could have a significant impact in their bid to reach a first World Cup since 1998.

For Scotland, it works by finishing top of their group. Well, that is the automatic - and stress-free - route of qualification.

In a truncated format, Clarke's men are in a section with just three other teams - Denmark, Greece and Belarus - and play their six qualifiers over three months.

Two of their six fixtures have already been played and by the end of the weekend they will only have two remaining - away to Greece and at home to Denmark.

Second place in the group still offers a route to the finals, with the 12 runners-up - plus the four best Nations League group winners who failed to finish in the top two of their sections - drawn into four play-off paths.

OK, now go fetch a calculator.

If Clarke's side achieve their target of six points over their next two games, we know they will be on 10 points from four qualifiers.

At the very least, that would ensure the Scots end their October camp second in the group and mean they cannot be caught by Belarus, who are bottom without a point.

Clarke's men could also be out of sight of Greece - and have a play-off spot guaranteed - by the end of Sunday.

Exciting stuff - but how does that work?

Well, defeat for the Greeks in Glasgow on Thursday would cut their potential maximum points total down to 12.

Three days later, they then face a tough trip to Denmark, who swept them aside in a 3-0 win in Athens last month.

Another loss for Greece in Copenhagen would mean they can only reach a tally of nine, leaving the Scots and the Danes to battle it out for top spot in November.

Of course, this is all hypothetical and Scotland have a history of giving the nation a reality check when hopes are high.

However, Clarke and his players have been recent beneficiaries of flying out of the traps in a qualifying campaign.

In a five-team group, the Scots sailed to five straight wins on their way to reaching Euro 2024.

Second place was enough to secure automatic qualification, which they achieved with two games to spare.

It is possible but pretty unlikely, especially when you consider Denmark are already on four points and have Belarus to play twice in their final four qualifiers.

And we can also use the Champions League as a case study.

Uefa's premier club competition had a format of four teams per group until last season, with each side playing six matches.

We looked at all eight sections across the 2023-24 campaign and 10 points would have been enough to guarantee top spot in just three of those groups.

The encouraging news, however, is a 10-point tally would have ensured second place in every group.

The BBC contract announced in March is part of a wider deal that also includes matches involving Northern Ireland and Wales.

It included 14 live Scotland matches, the first of which was the first leg of the Nations League play-off in Greece in March.

Coverage of Scotland's qualifiers for the World Cup in United States, Canada and Mexico continues on Thursday when the Greeks return to Glasgow.

The match will be shown live on BBC Scotland, iPlayer and online, with coverage beginning at 19:30 BST.

The BBC will also show Sunday's match at Hampden against Belarus.

There will be full live Sportsound commentary of both qualifiers on BBC Radio Scotland, Radio Nan Gaidheal and BBC Sounds. Sunday's match is also on BBC Radio 5 Live.

And there will be full live text coverage on the BBC Sport website and app, including as-live goal clips and all the best punditry and analysis, as well as the chance for fans to have their say.

After the game, you can rate the players and join in the conversation as we unpick the game.