1 week ago
11
All stats revealed
©TM/IMAGO
The first real milestone in the long and winding Premier League title race is usually who tops the league at Christmas. Normally centred around the half-way stage of the season, as December 25 strikes and families tuck into their Christmas dinners across the country, we can ordinarily gather a decent idea of which teams still have a chance of lifting the Premier League trophy come May. This season, two teams have a realistic chance of waking up on Christmas day top of the league. Whilst Aston Villa could mathematically achieve it with a huge 12 goal-swing, it will inevitably be either Arsenal or Manchester City who lead proceedings on Christmas day.
The Gunners are currently two points clear, but face the tough task of going to play Everton away on Saturday evening, whilst the Sky Blues host relegation-threatened West Ham. Pep Guardiola's team also have a superior goal difference. But just how important is it to lay down the mantle of being top at Christmas? Here at Transfermarkt, we have dug into the numbers, looking back since the Premier League's inception in the 1992/93 season at every team that has led the standings on Christmas day and how their fortunes favoured by the end of that campaign.
How important is it top the Premier League at Christmas?
Across the last 33 seasons, just 17 of the teams that led at Christmas went on to lift the Premier League trophy in May. Let's begin our analysis all the way back in 1992. In the inaugural Premier League season, Norwich City actually sat top of the table on December 25 with 39 points, but the Canaries would drop off to finish third that term as Manchester United won the league. A year later, the Red Devils themselves were top of the tree at Christmas with a huge 52 points and held on to retain the title that season. In the 1994/95 campaign, Blackburn Rovers led at Christmas with 43 points, and just about held off challengers Man Utd by a point to lift the trophy in May.
"I would love it if we beat them," berated a hot-tempered Kevin Keegan in the 1995/96 campaign, but after his Newcastle team led the table at Christmas, a late season capitulation saw Man Utd overtake them and win the title. The following season, Liverpool led at Christmas only to go on to finish fourth that term. In 1997/98, Man United sat in first, but Arsène Wenger's Arsenal hunted them down to win the league that term. The worst ever Christmas leaders struck in the 1998/99 campaign; Aston Villa topped the table in late December only to go on to finish sixth that season.
In the 1999/00 season, Leeds United made it five years in-a-row of the league leaders at Christmas not winning the title, as they dropped off to finish second to Man United. Sir Alex Ferguson's side led on December 25 the next season and went on to retain the title. Newcastle led in the 2001/02 season only to finish fourth, whilst Arsenal were top in 2002/03 but missed out on the title to Man United. They got their revenge the next season however, with United leading at Christmas, but the Invincible Gunners winning the league in May. Chelsea topped the league in Christmas and May in both the 2004/05 and 2005/06 seasons under José Mourinho, whilst Arsenal led the next term only to finish third. Liverpool were top at Christmas in 2008/09 but finished second to rivals Man Utd.
From the first 17 Premier League seasons, just six teams that were top at Christmas won the league, but then the tide began to swing slightly. Chelsea (2009/10), Man Utd (2010/11), and Manchester City (2011/12) all led the table at Christmas and the end of the season, even if the Sky Blues did rely on some Sergio Agüero madness on the last day to win their first ever Premier League title. In Ferguson's final season in 2012/13 campaign they also led the table at Christmas and in May. Liverpool led the table on Christmas of the 2013/14 season, but Steven Gerrard and Co. let the title slip to Man City.
Then, for four seasons in-a-row the Christmas leaders won the league, as Chelsea (2014/15), Leicester (2015/16), Chelsea again (2016/17), and Man City (2017/18), with a whopping 55 points at Christmas, all saw it out. Liverpool led the table at Christmas of the 2018/19 season, and despite finishing the campaign with 97 points, lost out on the title to Man City. The Reds put that right the next season though, as they led from Christmas until the end of the 2019/20 Covid-interrupted campaign.
Liverpool actually also led the table the following season at Christmas, but went on to finish third. Arsenal stormed out of the traps in the 2022/23 campaign and led at Christmas, but fell apart late on as Man City retained the title. The Gunners also led at Christmas the following season but the same outcome occurred with Guardiola's team usurping Mikel Arteta's men. Last term, Arne Slot's Liverpool led from Christmas until May to win the league.
