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Osimhen, Lookman & Co
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Nigeria’s hopes of securing automatic qualification for the 2026 World Cup effectively ended with their 1-1 draw with South Africa on Tuesday. And the Super Eagles are also at serious risk of missing out on a play-off place for the upcoming showpiece tournament in North America, which represents a disastrous outcome. Nigeria travelled to Bloemfontein trailing Group C winners South Africa by six points and they realistically needed to win to preserve any faint aspirations of securing top spot.
Their quest started in the worst possible manner with captain William Troost-Ekong scoring an own-goal and although Calvin Bassey salvaged a point, Nigeria now require a minor miracle to qualify for the World Cup. The Super Eagles squad is packed full of elite players from top five league clubs and they are the second most valuable African nation on Transfermarkt, but Éric Chelle’s men appear destined to miss out on a second consecutive World Cup.
Why Nigeria’s World Cup dream appears over
There’s only two group games remaining in the Confederation of African Football (CAF) qualification for the World Cup. The winners of each nine groups will automatically qualify for the tournament and the four best runners-up will compete for one final place, via the play-offs. Nigeria currently sit third in Group C, six points off South Africa and three points off Benin in second - who they play in the final qualification game.
South Africa will almost certainly secure automatic qualification across their two games against Zimbabwe and Rwanda next month. Nigeria could still realistically finish second in their group but they are highly unlikely to secure one of the best four runner-up slots for the play-offs. The maximum points that Chelle’s men can finish on is 17 but Gabon already have 19, Madagascar and DRC Congo have 16 points with four sides on 15 points. Nigeria qualified for six out of seven World Cups between 1994 and 2018 but their quest to reach Canada, Mexico and the United States in 2026 appears essentially over.
Nigeria: The second most valuable country in Africa
Nigeria’s squad is littered with household names, including the current African Footballer of the Year, Ademola Lookman. The Atalanta star featured in the 1-1 draw with South Africa, but Victor Osimhen missed out through injury. Osimhen is the third most valuable African player at €70 million and the absence of the Galatasaray star was sorely felt.
As the graphic above illustrates, Nigeria currently has the second most valuable squad from all African nations at €335.5m - Morocco lead the way at €358. It's therefore almost incomprehensible that the Super Eagles will miss out on the World Cup with the team that played South African featuring players from all top five leagues. To put their qualifying plight into context, Nigeria’s squad is more than 10 times more valuable than South Africa, who will finish top of Group C.
