Last 10 seasons analysed - Which clubs tend to have the best starts to a Premier League season?

Liverpool 2nd 

There’s an old belief in English football that states that a league table isn’t worth looking at until the end of matchday 10. Opening-day hiccups, new players adjusting to their teammates and managers still coming to terms with their best starting XI can all play a part in clubs dropping unexpected points in the opening weeks of a new Premier League season. But by the time most clubs have played 10 league games, punters typically know which clubs will be picking up silverware in May and which ones will be fighting for their lives at the bottom of the table.

With that in mind, Transfermarkt has taken a look back through the last 10 league campaigns to see which clubs typically hit the ground running in the Premier League and steal a headstart on their rivals. After all, last season’s league campaign saw Arne Slot’s Liverpool sitting top of the table with a two-point advantage, while two of the three clubs that were ultimately relegated were sitting in the bottom three. So ahead of the English top-flight returning, let’s see which clubs will most likely be sitting proud 10 matchdays from now.

To no great surprise, the typical names are near the top of the table when it comes to the highest average points per game after 10 games in each of the last 10 seasons. Manchester City take top spot with 2.32 points per game, followed by Liverpool (2.12) and then Arsenal (2.01). This, notably, would suggest that on average Pep Guardiola’s side are already three points ahead of Mikel Arteta’s after 10 games. And then after that there is a notable drop off.

Somewhat surprisingly, Tottenham take fourth spot despite the fact that they’ve only finished in the top four in five of the last 10 league campaigns. This, undoubtedly, suggests that Spurs typically start league campaigns well and then tend to see the wheels fall off later on in the season. Which makes sense, since the North London club have only featured in the top six for points won in the second half of the league campaign once in the last five seasons.

Manchester United fans may also wish to take note of their spot on the table, sitting sixth but someway behind fifth-placed Chelsea on just 1.68 points per game on average. Unlike Tottenham, the Old Trafford club do tend to perform better in the second half of the season, which is why they’ve finished above sixth place on five occasions in the last 10 seasons. However, these numbers certainly suggest that slow starts to league campaigns often scupper the club’s hopes of breaking into the top four or indeed challenging for the league title.