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With the conclusion of the Serie A and the FIFA Club World Cup—with Inter Milan and Juventus in action—in full swing, Transfermarkt has updated the market values of Europe’s final top five league: Italy’s Serie A. Altogether, 571 players playing in Italy’s top division had their market values updated. Overall, it is a market value update with very few changes, as only four players in the top ten saw their market values change.
In three cases, those changes are also minimal. Those three cases are also downgrades. Nicolò Barella (-€5m to €75m), Federico Dimarco (-€10m to €50m) from Inter Milan, and AC Milan’s Rafael Leão (-€5m to €70m) saw their market values drop. The only upgrade impacts Fiorentina forward Moise Kean. The 25-year-old forward scored 25 goals and three assists in 44 games for the Tuscany club and sees his market value by 25% from €40m to €50m.
Perhaps the story would have been a bit different if Inter Milan hadn’t been smashed 5-0 by PSG in the Champions League final. It wasn’t the only title the Nerazzuri threw away at the end of the season. Inter were on top of the Serie A table until matchday 33 but then had to make way to eventual champions Napoli. In the Coppa Italia, Inter were destroyed 3-0 by city rivals AC Milan in the semifinals. Hence, a season that could have ended with a treble celebration ended in tears. Still, there were some winners at Inter. Denzel Dumfries (+€7m to €35m), Davide Frattesi (+€3m to €35m,) and Yann Bisseck received notable upgrades.
Napoli market values: Six up and six downgrades - McTominay on the up
Meanwhile, at title winners Napoli, there were several ups and downs. Six players, Giovanni Di Lorenzo (-€3m to €12m), Pasquale Mazzocchi (-€500,000 to €2.5m), Giovanni Simeone (-€3m to €5m), Philip Billing (-€2m to €10m), Noah Okafor (-€2m to €13m) and Cyril Ngonge (-€2m to €8m) were impacted. On the other hand, six players received significant upgrades. Alex Meret (+€6m to €18m), Mathías Olivera (+€2m to €20m), Billy Gilmour (+€4m to €20m), Alessandro Buongiorno (+€5m to €50m), Giacomo Raspadori (+€5m to €25m) and Scott McTominay (+€10m to €50m) received upgrades.
An argument could be made that Scottish midfielder McTominay was the most impactful player in Serie A last season. “Thanks to Antonio Conte, the Scotsman has rediscovered his confidence and a team context capable of enhancing his qualities, which were obscured in recent years at Manchester United,” Transfermarkt Lead of Content Italy, Aniello Luciano, said.
Even then, among the top players, McTominay was one of the biggest winners of the market value update after scoring 12 goals and six assists in 34 Serie A games for Napoli. Should he have perhaps gone up a bit higher? Added Luciano: “Unfortunately, he has probably reached a ceiling. Hence, we decided for minimal increase despite the enormous impact the player has had in Serie A." Whether that is McTominay’s true ceiling in terms of market value remains to be seen. “We have only seen him perform in Serie A,” Luciano said. Perhaps a good run in the Champions League could see McTominay rise even further in the coming months.
Serie A market values: Yıldız breaks Turkish market value record – Talents to watch
One player to watch at the FIFA Club World Cup will be Juventus wunderkind Kenan Yıldız. The 20-year-old left-winger was one of the few bright spots in a Juve season that overall was one to forget. “Juventus' season was up and down, but Yildiz's growth was constant,” Luciano said. “At just 20 years old, he has shown that he can be a clear leader, in a historic club, even on the international stage.”
The German-born winger has scored nine goals and seven assists in 48 games across all competitions. Perhaps the only downside has been his performances in the UEFA Champions League. While Yıldız managed seven goals and five assists in 35 Serie A games, his one goal and one assist in ten Champions League games are a bit disappointing. Either way, the ceiling for Yıldız is understood to be very high. “He is a modern and versatile player, with above-average technical skills and therefore a profile that can suit many top clubs,” Luciano said. “As of today, he is the Turkish player with the highest market value since Transfermarkt analyzes and defines this type of data.”
Other young players to watch, with a significant increase in market value, include Parma’s 18-year-old defender, Giovanni Leoni (+€12m to €18m). Indeed, only two players— Udinese’s Arthur Atta (+220% from €2.5m to €8m) and Torino’s Sergiu Perciun (+275% from €400,000 to €1.5m)—had a bigger increase in market value by percentage than Leoni (+200%). Other notable young players with upgrades include Genoa’s 17-year-old Honest Ahanor (+€2m to €5m) and Milan’s Álex Jiménez (+€5m to €15m).
How Transfermarkt market values work
The Transfermarkt market values are calculated, taking into account various pricing models. A major factor is the Transfermarkt community, whose members discuss and evaluate player market values in detail. In general, the Transfermarkt market values are not to be equated with transfer fees.
The goal is not to predict a price but an expected value of a player in a free market. Both individual transfer modalities and situational conditions are relevant in determining market values. Examples of this are listed below. Transfermarkt does not use an algorithm (you can find the detailed market value definition here).
